CALGARY,
AB, Jan. 29, 2024 /CNW/ - InPlay Oil Corp.
(TSX: IPO) (OTCQX: IPOOF) ("InPlay" or the "Company") is pleased to
announce that its Board of Directors have approved a capital
program of $64 – $67 million for 2024.
2024 Capital Program Highlights
InPlay's 2024 exploration and development capital program of
$64 – $67
million is forecast to deliver the
following(5):
- Annual average production of 9,000 – 9,500 boe/d (59% – 61%
light crude oil and NGLs);
- Drilling program focused on high return oil weighted locations
driving annual oil production growth at the midpoint of guidance of
7% over 2023;
- Operating income profit margin(2) of approximately
59%;
- Reduction in capital spending of 20% – 25% compared to 2023
including reduced facilities and infrastructure spending by over
50% providing strong capital efficiencies;
- Adjusted Funds Flow ("AFF")(4) of $89 – $96
million;
- Free Adjusted Funds Flow ("FAFF")(2) of $22 – $32
million;
- Net debt(4) of $37 –
$44 million with a net debt to EBITDA
ratio(2) of 0.4 – 0.5 times which is among the lower
leverage ratios amongst our peers;
- Base dividend of $16 –
$17 million at the current monthly
dividend rate of $0.015/share
($0.18/share annualized) which
represents approximately an 8% yield at the current share price;
and
- Significant unutilized financial liquidity which can be used to
pursue potential tactical capital investments.
The table below highlights our 2024 guidance:
|
2024(5)
|
WTI
(US$/bbl)
|
75.00
|
Production (boe/d)
(1)
|
9,000 –
9,500
|
Capital ($
millions)
|
64 – 67
|
Net wells
|
14.0 – 15.0
|
AFF ($ millions)
(4)
|
89 – 96
|
FAFF ($ millions)
(2)
|
22 – 32
|
Net Debt at Year-end ($
millions) (4)
|
(44) – (37)
|
Annual Net Debt /
EBITDA (2)
|
0.4 – 0.5
|
Dividend ($
millions)
|
16 – 17
|
- The amounts above do not include potential future purchases
through the Company's normal course issuer bid ("NCIB").
With continued commodity price volatility, specifically weak
natural gas fundamentals, and current low investor sentiment,
InPlay has taken a measured and disciplined approach to capital
allocation for 2024, seeking to maximize capital efficiencies,
AFF(2), and FAFF(2) supporting strong returns
to shareholders with a priority on maintaining our pristine balance
sheet. Despite a 20% to 25% reduction in capital spending year over
year, InPlay is forecasting to deliver approximately 7% growth in
our oil volumes as we focus on higher oil weighted assets that
deliver greater returns. The capital program is designed to
responsibly manage the pace of development, maintain flexibility
and remain focused on delivering return of capital to
shareholders.
Given the higher rate of return of InPlay's oil weighted
properties, the Company plans to direct its 2024 capital budget
towards oil weighted drilling in the Cardium and Belly River. Plans
are to drill approximately 11 - 12 net Extended Reach Horizontal
("ERH") Cardium wells in Willesden Green and Pembina. Also, 3.0 net
wells are planned in the Belly River taking advantage of the very
high oil weighting of approximately 90%. These Belly River
wells exhibit increasing oil rates over the first three quarters of
production and a low decline rate thereafter. Our two most recent
horizontal wells drilled in the Belly River, which came online in
November 2022, have delivered
operating netbacks of approximately $71.25/boe since being brought on
production. Our higher oil weighted locations are
characterized by strong light oil rates with lower total boe/d rate
relative to wells with higher natural gas weightings. The Company's
2024 drilling program plans on drilling fewer wells in 2024
compared to 2023, as a result of our cautious, disciplined capital
approach for the year and is structured to take advantage of
improving differentials starting in the second quarter of 2024 and
throughout the balance of the year. Facility capital in 2024
is forecasted to be approximately $6.4
million less than 2023 due to the reduced drilling program
and significant capital spent on two major natural gas plant
upgrades completed in 2023.
InPlay's first quarter of 2024 drilling program consists of five
(4.9 net) ERH Cardium wells and three (0.7 net) non-operated ERH
Cardium wells. Drilling has started on a two well (1.9 net) pad in
Willesden Green which is expected to come on production in
February. Capital activity will then move to Pembina to drill three
(3.0 net) Cardium ERH wells. These wells will offset our five
successful wells drilled in 2023 characterized by low decline rates
and high light oil and liquids weighting with average initial
production ("IP") rates of 257 boe/d (89% light crude oil and
liquids), 265 boe/d (86% light crude oil and liquids) and 239 boe/d
(82% light crude oil and liquids) over their first 30, 60 and 180
days respectively.
InPlay made significant investments in 2023 to increase operated
natural gas takeaway capacity for future growth in Willesden Green
and to mitigate potential production issues arising from third
party outage and capacity constraints. These projects have already
shown their value by reducing back pressure on wells, lowering
declines and providing more consistent runtimes while
improving our liquids weighting with a higher natural gas
liquids recovery. To further enhance our natural gas takeaway
capabilities, InPlay has entered into a long term Gas Handling
Agreement with an industry partner guaranteeing access to natural
gas takeaway and processing capacity in the Company's Pembina area
where we were initially curtailed by approximately 6 mmcfd and
associated oil and liquids starting on February 15, 2023 with the gradual reduction in
curtailments and the full resumption of production in September 2023. This contract will allow InPlay
to restart with certainty of capacity the development of this
prolific and strong rate of return growth area where drilling
activity has not occurred since the spring of 2022. InPlay plans on
drilling a three (3.0 net) ERH Cardium well pad in this area in the
third quarter of 2024. The Company projects fewer operated and
non-operated turnarounds and other infrastructure issues during
2024 after an unprecedented high level of disruptions in 2023.
To mitigate risk and add stability during periods of market
volatility, commodity hedges have been secured through 2024 and
into 2025 as summarized below.
|
Q1/24
|
Q2/24
|
Q3/24
|
Q4/24
|
Q1/25
|
Natural Gas AECO Swap
(mcf/d)
|
-
|
1,900
|
1,900
|
640
|
-
|
Hedged price
($AECO/mcf)
|
-
|
2.00
|
2.00
|
2.00
|
-
|
Natural Gas AECO
Costless Collar (mcf/d)
|
4,870
|
3,790
|
3,790
|
5,050
|
3,790
|
Hedged price
($AECO/mcf)
|
2.48 - 3.82
|
2.08 - 2.77
|
2.08 - 2.77
|
2.27 - 3.04
|
2.48 - 3.46
|
Crude Oil Costless
Collar (bbl/d)
|
-
|
1,000
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
Hedged price ($USD
WTI/bbl)
|
-
|
72.00 -
80.25
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
Crude Oil Costless
Collar (bbl/d)
|
330
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
Hedged price ($CAD
WTI/bbl)
|
95.00 -
110.00
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Crude Oil WTI Three-way
Collar (bbl/d) (7)
|
-
|
-
|
1,000
|
1,000
|
-
|
Low sold put price
($USD WTI/bbl)
|
-
|
-
|
64.00
|
64.00
|
-
|
Mid bought put price
($USD WTI/bbl)
|
-
|
-
|
74.00
|
74.00
|
-
|
High sold call price
($USD WTI/bbl)
|
-
|
-
|
82.48
|
82.48
|
-
|
InPlay will continue to prudently allocate capital resources and
adjust its capital plans in consideration of commodity prices,
inflationary cost pressures and other aspects impacting our
business. Should commodity prices improve and stabilize, InPlay
will remain disciplined and flexible and can quickly adjust capital
activity to respond to changing market conditions.
2023 Update
InPlay's fourth quarter capital program consisted of drilling
two (1.6 net) ERH wells in Willesden Green that were brought on
production in November. Also, the company drilled its first (1.0
net) multilateral Belly River horizontal well which was brought on
production in December. The well has been on production for
approximately one month and is still in its initial stages of
cleanup and early production results are meeting our internal
expectations with oil cuts increasing, consistent with offsetting
wells.
The increase in North American natural gas production coupled
with a warm start to winter has natural gas storage inventories at
very high levels resulting in weaker than expected natural gas
prices during the fourth quarter that continued into 2024. Crude
oil differentials began to weaken in November and widened
throughout the quarter which impacted realized oil pricing during
this period. Higher differentials are extending into the
first quarter of 2024 but forward indices show them improving and
narrowing starting in the second quarter of 2024 and throughout the
remainder of the year.
Annual average production for 2023 is forecast to be
approximately 9,050 boe/d(1) (58% light crude oil &
NGLs) which was impacted by approximately 650 boe/d over the year
due to extraordinary curtailments experienced from third party
capacity constraints and turnarounds, Alberta wildfires, and from delays in starting
up our natural gas facility in the third quarter as discussed in
our prior press releases.
The table below highlights our updated forecasted 2023
guidance:
|
2023(3)
|
WTI
(US$/bbl)
|
77.61
|
Production (boe/d)
(1)
|
9,000 –
9,100
|
Capital ($
millions)
|
84.5
|
Net wells
|
17.1
|
AFF ($ millions)
(4)
|
91 – 93
|
FAFF ($ millions)
(2)
|
6 – 8
|
Net Debt at Year-end ($
millions) (4)
|
(45) – (47)
|
Dividend ($
millions)
|
16
|
- See Reader Advisories for previous guidance and underlying
assumptions.
As commented on above, continued commodity price volatility and
current weak industry sentiment has resulted in the Company taking
a conservative, disciplined approach to capital allocation in
2024. Preliminary estimates and plans for 2025 and beyond
will be dependent on the stability of commodity prices and industry
sentiment balancing manageable growth and ensuring the long term
sustainability of our return of capital to shareholder strategy. As
a result, the Company withdraws its preliminary estimates and plans
for 2025.
We look forward to the profitable development of our high rate
of return asset base and continuing to provide strong returns to
shareholders through 2024 and beyond. On behalf of our
employees, management team and Board of Directors, we would like to
thank our shareholders for their support.
For further information please contact:
Doug Bartole
President and Chief Executive Officer
InPlay Oil Corp.
Telephone: (587) 955-0632
|
|
Darren Dittmer
Chief Financial Officer
InPlay Oil Corp.
Telephone: (587) 955-0634
|
|
|
|
Notes:
|
1.
|
See "Reader
Advisories - Production Breakdown by Product Type"
|
2.
|
Non-GAAP financial
measure or ratio that does not have a standardized meaning under
International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) and GAAP and
therefore may not be comparable with the calculations of similar
measures for other companies. Please refer to "Non-GAAP and Other
Financial Measures" contained within this press
release.
|
3.
|
Based on estimated,
unaudited year-end 2023 results. See "Reader Advisories – Forward
Looking Information and Statements" for underlying assumptions
related to our estimated, unaudited year-end 2023
results.
|
4.
|
Capital management
measure. See "Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures" contained
within this press release.
|
5.
|
See "Reader
Advisories – Forward Looking Information and Statements" for key
budget and underlying assumptions related to our 2024 capital
program and associated guidance.
|
6.
|
Supplementary
financial measure. See "Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures"
contained within this press release.
|
7.
|
The WTI three-way
collars are a combination high priced sold call, low priced sold
put and a mid-priced bought put. The high sold call price is the
maximum price the Company will receive for the contract volumes.
The mid bought put price is the minimum price InPlay will receive,
unless the market price falls below the low sold put strike price,
in which case InPlay receives market price plus the difference
between the mid bought put price minus the low sold put
price.
|
Reader Advisories
Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures
Throughout this press release and other materials disclosed by
the Company, InPlay uses certain measures to analyze financial
performance, financial position and cash flow. These non-GAAP and
other financial measures do not have any standardized meaning
prescribed under GAAP and therefore may not be comparable to
similar measures presented by other entities. The non-GAAP and
other financial measures should not be considered alternatives to,
or more meaningful than, financial measures that are determined in
accordance with GAAP as indicators of the Company performance.
Management believes that the presentation of these non-GAAP and
other financial measures provides useful information to
shareholders and investors in understanding and evaluating the
Company's ongoing operating performance, and the measures provide
increased transparency and the ability to better analyze InPlay's
business performance against prior periods on a comparable
basis.
Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Ratios
Included in this document are references to the terms "free
adjusted funds flow", "operating income", "operating netback per
boe", "operating income profit margin", "Net Debt to EBITDA",
"Production per debt adjusted share" and "EV / DAAFF". Management
believes these measures and ratios are helpful supplementary
measures of financial and operating performance and provide users
with similar, but potentially not comparable, information that is
commonly used by other oil and natural gas companies. These
terms do not have any standardized meaning prescribed by GAAP and
should not be considered an alternative to, or more meaningful than
"profit (loss) before taxes", "profit (loss) and comprehensive
income (loss)", "adjusted funds flow", "capital expenditures",
"corporate acquisitions, net of cash acquired", "net debt",
"weighted average number of common shares (basic)" or assets and
liabilities as determined in accordance with GAAP as a measure of
the Company's performance and financial position.
Free Adjusted Funds Flow
Management considers FAFF an important measure to identify the
Company's ability to improve its financial condition through debt
repayment and its ability to provide returns to shareholders. FAFF
should not be considered as an alternative to or more meaningful
than AFF as determined in accordance with GAAP as an indicator of
the Company's performance. FAFF is calculated by the Company as AFF
less exploration and development capital expenditures and property
dispositions (acquisitions) and is a measure of the cashflow
remaining after capital expenditures before corporate acquisitions
that can be used for additional capital activity, corporate
acquisitions, repayment of debt or decommissioning expenditures or
potentially return of capital to shareholders. Refer to the
"Forward Looking Information and Statements" section for a
calculation of forecast FAFF.
Operating Income/Operating Netback per boe/Operating Income
Profit Margin
InPlay uses "operating income", "operating netback per boe" and
"operating income profit margin" as key performance indicators.
Operating income is calculated by the Company as oil and natural
gas sales less royalties, operating expenses and transportation
expenses and is a measure of the profitability of operations before
administrative, share-based compensation, financing and other
non-cash items. Management considers operating income an important
measure to evaluate its operational performance as it demonstrates
its field level profitability. Operating income should not be
considered as an alternative to or more meaningful than net income
as determined in accordance with GAAP as an indicator of the
Company's performance. Operating netback per boe is calculated by
the Company as operating income divided by average production for
the respective period. Management considers operating netback per
boe an important measure to evaluate its operational performance as
it demonstrates its field level profitability per unit of
production. Operating income profit margin is calculated by the
Company as operating income as a percentage of oil and natural gas
sales. Management considers operating income profit margin an
important measure to evaluate its operational performance as it
demonstrates how efficiently the Company generates field level
profits from its sales revenue. Refer to the "Forward Looking
Information and Statements" section for a calculation of operating
income, operating netback per boe and operating income profit
margin.
Net Debt to EBITDA
Management considers Net Debt to EBITDA an important measure as
it is a key metric to identify the Company's ability to fund
financing expenses, net debt reductions and other obligations.
EBITDA is calculated by the Company as adjusted funds flow before
interest expense. When this measure is presented quarterly, EBITDA
is annualized by multiplying by four. When this measure is
presented on a trailing twelve month basis, EBITDA for the twelve
months preceding the net debt date is used in the calculation. This
measure is consistent with the EBITDA formula prescribed under the
Company's Senior Credit Facility. Net Debt to EBITDA is calculated
as Net Debt divided by EBITDA. Refer to the "Forward Looking
Information and Statements" section for a calculation of forecast
Net Debt to EBITDA.
Production per Debt Adjusted Share
InPlay uses "Production per debt adjusted share" as a key
performance indicator. Debt adjusted shares should not be
considered as an alternative to or more meaningful than common
shares as determined in accordance with GAAP as an indicator of the
Company's performance. Debt adjusted shares is a non-GAAP measure
used in the calculation of Production per debt adjusted share and
is calculated by the Company as common shares outstanding plus the
change in net debt divided by the Company's current trading price
on the TSX, converting net debt to equity. Debt adjusted shares
should not be considered as an alternative to or more meaningful
than weighted average number of common shares (basic) as determined
in accordance with GAAP as an indicator of the Company's
performance. Management considers Debt adjusted share to be a key
performance indicator as it adjusts for the effects of capital
structure in relation to the Company's peers. Production per debt
adjusted share is calculated by the Company as production divided
by debt adjusted shares. Management considers Production per
debt adjusted share is a key performance indicator as it adjusts
for the effects of changes in annual production in relation to the
Company's capital structure. Refer to the "Forward Looking
Information and Statements" section for a calculation of forecast
Production per debt adjusted share.
EV / DAAFF
InPlay uses "enterprise value to debt adjusted AFF" or
"EV/DAAFF" as a key performance indicator. EV/DAAFF is calculated
by the Company as enterprise value divided by debt adjusted AFF for
the relevant period. Debt adjusted AFF ("DAAFF") is calculated by
the Company as adjusted funds flow plus financing costs. Enterprise
value is a capital management measure that is used in the
calculation of EV/DAAFF. Enterprise value is calculated as the
Company's market capitalization plus net debt. Management considers
enterprise value a key performance indicator as it identifies the
total capital structure of the Company. Management considers
EV/DAAFF a key performance indicator as it is a key metric used to
evaluate the sustainability of the Company relative to other
companies while incorporating the impact of differing capital
structures. Refer to the "Forward Looking Information and
Statements" section for a calculation of forecast EV/DAAFF.
Capital Management Measures
Adjusted Funds Flow
Management considers adjusted funds flow to be an important
measure of InPlay's ability to generate the funds necessary to
finance capital expenditures. Adjusted funds flow is a GAAP measure
and is disclosed in the notes to the Company's financial statements
for the year ending December 31, 2022
and the most recently filed quarterly financial statements. All
references to adjusted funds flow throughout this document are
calculated as funds flow adjusting for decommissioning expenditures
and transaction and integration costs. Decommissioning expenditures
are adjusted from funds flow as they are incurred on a
discretionary and irregular basis and are primarily incurred on
previous operating assets. Transaction costs are non-recurring
costs for the purposes of an acquisition, making the exclusion of
these items relevant in Management's view to the reader in the
evaluation of InPlay's operating performance. The Company also
presents adjusted funds flow per share whereby per share amounts
are calculated using weighted average shares outstanding consistent
with the calculation of profit per common share.
Net Debt
Net debt is a GAAP measure and is disclosed in the notes to the
Company's financial statements for the year ending December 31, 2022 and the most recently filed
quarterly financial statements. The Company closely monitors its
capital structure with the goal of maintaining a strong balance
sheet to fund the future growth of the Company. The Company
monitors net debt as part of its capital structure. The Company
uses net debt (bank debt plus accounts payable and accrued
liabilities less accounts receivables and accrued receivables,
prepaid expenses and deposits and inventory) as an alternative
measure of outstanding debt. Management considers net debt an
important measure to assist in assessing the liquidity of the
Company.
Supplementary Measures
"Average realized crude oil price" is comprised of crude
oil commodity sales from production, as determined in accordance
with IFRS, divided by the Company's crude oil production. Average
prices are before deduction of transportation costs and do not
include gains and losses on financial instruments.
"Average realized NGL price" is comprised of NGL
commodity sales from production, as determined in accordance with
IFRS, divided by the Company's NGL production. Average prices are
before deduction of transportation costs and do not include gains
and losses on financial instruments.
"Average realized natural gas price" is comprised of
natural gas commodity sales from production, as determined in
accordance with IFRS, divided by the Company's natural gas
production. Average prices are before deduction of transportation
costs and do not include gains and losses on financial
instruments.
"Average realized commodity price" is comprised of
commodity sales from production, as determined in accordance with
IFRS, divided by the Company's production. Average prices are
before deduction of transportation costs and do not include gains
and losses on financial instruments.
"Adjusted funds flow per weighted average basic share" is
comprised of adjusted funds flow divided by the basic weighted
average common shares.
"Adjusted funds flow per weighted average diluted share"
is comprised of adjusted funds flow divided by the diluted weighted
average common shares.
"Adjusted funds flow per boe" is comprised of
adjusted funds flow divided by total production.
Preliminary Financial
Information
The Company's expectations set forth in the updated forecasted
2023 guidance are based on, among other things, the Company's
anticipated financial results for the three and twelve month
periods ended December 31, 2023. The
Company's anticipated financial results are unaudited and
preliminary estimates that: (i) represent the most current
information available to management as of the date of hereof; (ii)
are subject to completion of audit procedures that could result in
significant changes to the estimated amounts; and (iii) do not
present all information necessary for an understanding of the
Company's financial condition as of, and the Company's results of
operations for, such periods. The anticipated financial results are
subject to the same limitations and risks as discussed under
"Forward Looking Information and Statements" below. Accordingly,
the Company's anticipated financial results for such periods may
change upon the completion and approval of the financial statements
for such periods and the changes could be material.
Forward-Looking Information and
Statements
This news release contains certain forward–looking information
and statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws.
The use of any of the words "expect", "anticipate", "continue",
"estimate", "may", "will", "project", "should", "believe", "plans",
"intends", "forecast" and similar expressions are intended to
identify forward-looking information or statements. In particular,
but without limiting the foregoing, this news release contains
forward-looking information and statements pertaining to the
following: the Company's business strategy, milestones and
objectives; all estimates and guidance related to the year ended
2023 results; the Company's planned 2024 capital program including
wells to be drilled and completed and the timing of the same; 2024
guidance based on the planned capital program and all associated
underlying assumptions set forth in this press release including,
without limitation, forecasts of 2024 annual average production
levels, adjusted funds flow, free adjusted funds flow, Net
Debt/EBITDA ratio, operating income profit margin, and Management's
belief that the Company can grow some or all of these attributes
and specified measures; light crude oil and NGLs weighting
estimates; expectations regarding future commodity prices;
future oil and natural gas prices; future liquidity and
financial capacity; future results from operations and operating
metrics; future costs, expenses and royalty rates; future interest
costs; the exchange rate between the $US and $Cdn; future
development, exploration, acquisition, development and
infrastructure activities and related capital expenditures,
including our planned 2024 capital program; the amount and timing
of capital projects;; and methods of funding our capital
program.
The internal projections, expectations, or beliefs underlying
our Board approved 2024 capital budget and associated guidance are
subject to change in light of, among other factors, the impact of
world events including the Russia/Ukraine conflict and war in the Middle East, ongoing results, prevailing
economic circumstances, volatile commodity prices, and changes in
industry conditions and regulations. InPlay's 2024 financial
outlook and guidance provides shareholders with relevant
information on management's expectations for results of operations,
excluding any potential acquisitions or dispositions, for such time
periods based upon the key assumptions outlined herein. Readers are
cautioned that events or circumstances could cause capital plans
and associated results to differ materially from those predicted
and InPlay's guidance for 2024 may not be appropriate for other
purposes. Accordingly, undue reliance should not be placed on
same.
Without limitation of the foregoing, readers are cautioned that
the Company's future dividend payments to shareholders of the
Company, if any, and the level thereof will be subject to the
discretion of the Board of Directors of InPlay. The Company's
dividend policy and funds available for the payment of dividends,
if any, from time to time, is dependent upon, among other things,
levels of FAFF, leverage ratios, financial requirements for the
Company's operations and execution of its growth strategy,
fluctuations in commodity prices and working capital, the timing
and amount of capital expenditures, credit facility availability
and limitations on distributions existing thereunder, and other
factors beyond the Company's control. Further, the ability of the
Company to pay dividends will be subject to applicable laws,
including satisfaction of solvency tests under the Business
Corporations Act (Alberta),
and satisfaction of certain applicable contractual restrictions
contained in the agreements governing the Company's outstanding
indebtedness.
Forward-looking statements or information are based on a number
of material factors, expectations or assumptions of InPlay which
have been used to develop such statements and information but which
may prove to be incorrect. Although InPlay believes that the
expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements or
information are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on
forward-looking statements because InPlay can give no assurance
that such expectations will prove to be correct. In addition to
other factors and assumptions which may be identified herein,
assumptions have been made regarding, among other things: the
impact of increasing competition; the general stability of the
economic and political environment in which InPlay operates; the
timely receipt of any required regulatory approvals; the ability of
InPlay to obtain qualified staff, equipment and services in a
timely and cost efficient manner; drilling results; the ability of
the operator of the projects in which InPlay has an interest in to
operate the field in a safe, efficient and effective manner; the
ability of InPlay to obtain debt financing on acceptable terms; the
anticipated tax treatment of the monthly base dividend; the timing
and amount of purchases under the Company's NCIB; field production
rates and decline rates; the ability to replace and expand oil and
natural gas reserves through acquisition, development and
exploration; the timing and cost of pipeline, storage and facility
construction and the ability of InPlay to secure adequate product
transportation; future commodity prices; that various conditions to
a shareholder return strategy can be satisfied; the ongoing impact
of the Russia/Ukraine conflict and war in the Middle East; currency, exchange and interest
rates; regulatory framework regarding royalties, taxes and
environmental matters in the jurisdictions in which InPlay
operates; and the ability of InPlay to successfully market its oil
and natural gas products.
The forward-looking information and statements included herein
are not guarantees of future performance and should not be unduly
relied upon. Such information and statements, including the
assumptions made in respect thereof, involve known and unknown
risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual
results or events to defer materially from those anticipated in
such forward-looking information or statements including, without
limitation: the continuing impact of the Russia/Ukraine conflict and war in the Middle East; inflation and the risk of a
global recession; changes in our planned 2023 capital program;
changes in our approach to shareholder returns; changes in
commodity prices and other assumptions outlined herein; the risk
that dividend payments may be reduced, suspended or cancelled; the
potential for variation in the quality of the reservoirs in which
we operate; changes in the demand for or supply of our products;
unanticipated operating results or production declines; changes in
tax or environmental laws, royalty rates or other regulatory
matters; changes in development plans or strategies of InPlay or by
third party operators of our properties; changes in our credit
structure, increased debt levels or debt service requirements;
inaccurate estimation of our light crude oil and natural gas
reserve and resource volumes; limited, unfavorable or a lack of
access to capital markets; increased costs; a lack of adequate
insurance coverage; the impact of competitors; and certain other
risks detailed from time-to-time in InPlay's continuous
disclosure documents filed on SEDAR including our Annual
Information Form and our MD&A.
This press release contains future-oriented financial
information and financial outlook information (collectively,
"FOFI") about InPlay's financial and leverage targets and
objectives, potential dividends, share buybacks and beliefs
underlying our Board approved 2024 capital budget and associated
guidance, all of which are subject to the same assumptions, risk
factors, limitations, and qualifications as set forth in the above
paragraphs. The actual results of operations of InPlay and the
resulting financial results will likely vary from the amounts set
forth in this press release and such variation may be material.
InPlay and its management believe that the FOFI has been prepared
on a reasonable basis, reflecting management's reasonable estimates
and judgments. However, because this information is subjective and
subject to numerous risks, it should not be relied on as
necessarily indicative of future results. Except as required by
applicable securities laws, InPlay undertakes no obligation to
update such FOFI. FOFI contained in this press release was made as
of the date of this press release and was provided for the purpose
of providing further information about InPlay's anticipated future
business operations and strategy. Readers are cautioned that the
FOFI contained in this press release should not be used for
purposes other than for which it is disclosed herein.
The forward-looking information and statements contained in this
news release speak only as of the date hereof and InPlay does not
assume any obligation to publicly update or revise any of the
included forward-looking statements or information, whether as a
result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as
may be required by applicable securities laws.
Risk Factors to FLI
Risk factors that could materially impact successful execution
and actual results of the Company's 2023 and 2024 capital program
and associated guidance and estimates include:
- volatility of petroleum and natural gas prices and inherent
difficulty in the accuracy of predictions related thereto;
- the extent of any unfavourable impacts of wildfires in the
province of Alberta.
- changes in Federal and Provincial regulations;
- the Company's ability to secure financing for the Board
approved 2024 capital program and longer-term capital plans sourced
from AFF, bank or other debt instruments, asset sales, equity
issuance,
infrastructure financing or some combination thereof; and
- those additional risk factors set forth in the Company's
MD&A and most recent Annual Information Form filed on
SEDAR
Key Budget and Underlying Material Assumptions to FLI
The key budget and underlying material assumptions used by the
Company in the development of its current and previous 2023
guidance and 2024 guidance are as follows:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Actuals
FY 2022
|
Updated
Guidance
FY
2023(7)
|
Previous
Guidance
FY
2023(1)
|
Guidance
FY 2024
|
Preliminary
Plan
FY
2024(3)
|
WTI
|
US$/bbl
|
|
$94.23
|
$77.61
|
$77.15
|
75.00
|
$75.00
|
NGL Price
|
$/boe
|
|
$50.14
|
$36.60
|
$38.40
|
$36.85
|
$43.00
|
AECO
|
$/GJ
|
|
$5.04
|
$2.83
|
$2.80
|
$2.35
|
$4.50
|
Foreign Exchange
Rate
|
CDN$/US$
|
|
0.77
|
0.74
|
0.75
|
0.74
|
0.73
|
MSW
Differential
|
US$/bbl
|
|
$1.82
|
$3.25
|
$2.75
|
$4.45
|
$3.00
|
Production
|
Boe/d
|
|
9,105
|
9,000 –
9,100
|
9,100 –
9,500
|
9,000 –
9,500
|
10,250 –
11,250
|
Revenue
|
$/boe
|
|
71.79
|
54.00 –
55.00
|
54.25 –
59.25
|
51.25 –
56.25
|
58.50 –
63.50
|
Royalties
|
$/boe
|
|
11.55
|
6.50 – 7.00
|
6.75 – 8.25
|
5.90 – 7.40
|
7.50 – 9.00
|
Operating
Expenses
|
$/boe
|
|
13.16
|
14.50 –
15.50
|
12.50 –
15.50
|
12.75 –
15.75
|
11.00 –
14.00
|
Transportation
|
$/boe
|
|
1.18
|
0.90 – 1.05
|
0.90 – 1.15
|
0.85 – 1.10
|
1.00 – 1.25
|
Interest
|
$/boe
|
|
1.49
|
1.50 – 1.70
|
1.00 – 1.50
|
1.50 – 2.00
|
0.00 – 0.10
|
General and
Administrative
|
$/boe
|
|
2.86
|
3.00 – 3.30
|
2.60 – 3.30
|
2.50 – 3.25
|
2.15 – 2.85
|
Hedging loss
(gain)
|
$/boe
|
|
1.97
|
(1.00) –
(1.25)
|
(0.75) –
(1.25)
|
0.00 – 0.15
|
–
|
Decommissioning
Expenditures
|
$ millions
|
|
$3.0
|
$3.5 – $4.0
|
$3.5 – $4.0
|
$4.0 – $4.5
|
$5.0 – $5.5
|
Adjusted Funds
Flow
|
$ millions
|
|
$131
|
$91 – $93
|
$103 – $108
|
$89 – $96
|
$138 – $150
|
Dividends
|
$ millions
|
|
$3
|
$16
|
$15 – $16
|
$16 – $17
|
$15 – $16
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Actuals
FY 2022
|
Updated
Guidance
FY
2023(7)
|
Previous
Guidance
FY
2023(2)
|
Guidance
FY 2024
|
Preliminary
Plan
FY
2024(3)
|
Adjusted Funds
Flow
|
$ millions
|
|
$131
|
$91 – $93
|
$103 – $108
|
$89 – $96
|
$138 – $150
|
Capital
Expenditures
|
$ millions
|
|
$77.6
|
$84.5
|
$83
|
$64 – $67
|
$76 – $81
|
Free Adjusted Funds
Flow
|
$ millions
|
|
$53
|
$6 – $8
|
$20 – $25
|
$22 – $32
|
$57 – $74
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Actuals
FY 2022
|
Updated
Guidance
FY
2023(7)
|
Previous
Guidance
FY
2023(1)
|
Guidance
FY 2024
|
Preliminary
Plan
FY
2024(3)
|
Revenue
|
$/boe
|
|
71.79
|
54.00 –
55.00
|
54.25 –
59.25
|
51.25 –
56.25
|
58.50 –
63.50
|
Royalties
|
$/boe
|
|
11.55
|
6.50 – 7.00
|
6.75 – 8.25
|
5.90 – 7.40
|
7.50 – 9.00
|
Operating
Expenses
|
$/boe
|
|
13.16
|
14.50 –
15.50
|
12.50 –
15.50
|
12.75 –
15.75
|
11.00 –
14.00
|
Transportation
|
$/boe
|
|
1.18
|
0.90 – 1.05
|
0.90 – 1.15
|
0.85 – 1.10
|
1.00 – 1.25
|
Operating
Netback
|
$/boe
|
|
45.90
|
31.00 –
32.00
|
32.00 –
37.00
|
29.50 –
34.50
|
36.50 –
41.50
|
Operating Income Profit
Margin
|
|
|
64 %
|
58 %
|
61 %
|
59 %
|
64 %
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Actuals
FY 2022
|
Updated
Guidance
FY
2023(7)
|
Previous
Guidance
FY
2023(2)
|
Guidance
FY 2024
|
Preliminary
Plan
FY
2024(2)
|
Adjusted Funds
Flow
|
$ millions
|
|
$131
|
$91 – $93
|
$103 – $108
|
$89 – $96
|
$138 – $150
|
Interest
|
$/boe
|
|
1.49
|
1.50 – 1.70
|
1.00 – 1.50
|
1.50 – 2.00
|
0.00 – 0.10
|
EBITDA
|
$ millions
|
|
$136
|
$97 – $99
|
$108 – $113
|
$95 – $102
|
$138 – $150
|
Net Debt
|
$ millions
|
|
($33)
|
($47) –
($45)
|
($35) –
($30)
|
($44) –
($37)
|
$2 – $14
|
Net
Debt/EBITDA
|
|
|
0.2
|
0.5
|
0.2 – 0.3
|
0.4 – 0.5
|
(0.0) –
(0.1)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Actuals
FY 2022
|
Updated
Guidance
FY
2023(7)
|
Previous
Guidance
FY
2023(2)
|
Production
|
Boe/d
|
|
9,105
|
9,000 –
9,100
|
9,100 –
9,500
|
Opening Net
Debt
|
$ millions
|
|
($80.2)
|
($33)
|
($33)
|
Ending Net
Debt
|
$ millions
|
|
($33)
|
($47) –
($45)
|
($35) –
($30)
|
Weighted avg.
outstanding shares
|
# millions
|
|
86.9
|
89.1
|
88.7
|
Assumed Share
price
|
$
|
|
3.39(5)
|
2.65(5)
|
2.75
|
Prod. per debt adj.
share growth(4)(8)
|
|
|
51 %
|
(7%) – (9%)
|
(3%) – 3%
|
- The change in production per debt adjusted share growth between
previous and updated guidance is primarily due to 2023 production
being impacted by approximately 650 boe/d as a result of
curtailments, Alberta wildfires,
natural gas facility startup delays as discussed in the body of
this press release.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Actuals
FY 2022
|
Updated
Guidance
FY
2023(7)
|
Previous
Guidance
FY
2023(2)
|
Share outstanding, end
of year
|
# millions
|
|
87.0
|
91.1
|
89.4
|
Assumed Share
price
|
$
|
|
3.03(6)
|
2.21(6)
|
2.75
|
Market
capitalization
|
$ millions
|
|
$263
|
$201
|
$246
|
Net Debt
|
$ millions
|
|
($33)
|
($47) –
($45)
|
($35) –
($30)
|
Enterprise
value
|
$millions
|
|
$296
|
$246 – $248
|
$276 – $281
|
Adjusted Funds
Flow
|
$ millions
|
|
$131
|
$91 – $93
|
$103 – $108
|
Interest
|
$/boe
|
|
1.49
|
1.50 – 1.70
|
1.00 – 1.50
|
Debt Adjusted
AFF
|
$ millions
|
|
$136
|
$97 – $99
|
$108 – $113
|
EV/DAAFF(8)
|
|
|
2.2
|
2.6 – 2.5
|
2.7 – 2.5
|
|
|
(1)
|
As previously released
August 14, 2023.
|
(2)
|
As previously released
November 9, 2023.
|
(3)
|
As previously released
January 18, 2023.
|
(4)
|
Production per debt
adjusted share is calculated by the Company as production divided
by debt adjusted shares. Debt adjusted shares is calculated by the
Company as common shares outstanding plus the change in net debt
divided by the Company's current trading price on the TSX,
converting net debt to equity. Future share prices are assumed to
be consistent with the current share price.
|
(5)
|
Weighted average share
price throughout 2022 and 2023.
|
(6)
|
Ending share price at
December 31, 2022 and December 31, 2023.
|
(7)
|
The change in the 2023
forecasted results from prior guidance results from an increase in
capital expenditures and decrease in adjusted funds flow as a
result of a reduction to production, a higher natural gas weighting
of total production and lower AECO natural gas prices than
previously forecasted.
|
(8)
|
The Company has
withdrawn its 2024 and 2025 production per debt adjusted share and
EV/DAAFF forecast for 2024 and 2025. The Company believes that
these metrics can be quite variable and hard to reasonably estimate
given the volatility in the Company's share price, which is a
material assumption used in the calculation of these metrics.
|
(9)
|
Continued commodity
price volatility and current weak industry sentiment has resulted
in the Company taking a conservative and disciplined approach to
capital allocation in 2024 and future years. Preliminary
estimates and plans for 2025 and beyond will be dependent on the
stability of commodity prices and industry sentiment balancing
manageable growth and ensuring the long term sustainability of our
return of capital to shareholder strategy. As a result, the Company
withdraws its preliminary estimates and plans for 2025.
|
- See "Production Breakdown by Product Type" below
- Quality and pipeline transmission adjustments may impact
realized oil prices in addition to the MSW Differential provided
above
- Changes in working capital are not assumed to have a material
impact between the years presented above.
Production Breakdown by Product Type
Disclosure of production on a per boe basis in this press
release consists of the constituent product types as defined in
NI 51–101 and their respective quantities disclosed in the
table below:
|
|
|
|
|
|
Light and
Medium
Crude
oil
(bbls/d)
|
NGLs
(boe/d)
|
Conventional
Natural
gas
(Mcf/d)
|
Total
(boe/d)
|
2022 Average
Production
|
3,766
|
1,402
|
23,623
|
9,105
|
2023 Updated Annual
Guidance
|
3,840
|
1,390
|
22,920
|
9,050(1)
|
2023 Previous Annual
Guidance
|
4,105
|
1,332
|
23,175
|
9,300(2)
|
2024 Annual
Guidance
|
4,090
|
1,395
|
22,590
|
9,250(3)
|
2024 Annual Preliminary
Plan
|
4,655
|
1,565
|
27,180
|
10,750(4)
|
|
Notes:
|
1.
|
This reflects the
mid-point of the Company's 2023 updated production guidance range
of 9,000 to 9,100 boe/d.
|
2.
|
This reflects the
mid-point of the Company's 2023 previous production guidance range
of 9,100 to 9,500 boe/d.
|
3.
|
This reflects the
mid-point of the Company's 2024 production guidance range of 9,000
to 9,500 boe/d.
|
4.
|
This reflects the
midpoint of the Company's annual production previous preliminary
estimate range.
|
5.
|
With respect to
forward–looking production guidance, product type breakdown is
based upon management's expectations based on reasonable
assumptions but are subject to variability based on actual well
results.
|
References to crude oil, light oil, NGLs or natural gas
production in this press release refer to the light and medium
crude oil, natural gas liquids and conventional natural gas product
types, respectively, as defined in National Instrument 51-101,
Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities ("NI
51-101").
BOE Equivalent
Barrel of oil equivalents or BOEs may be misleading,
particularly if used in isolation. A BOE conversion ratio of 6 mcf:
1 bbl is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily
applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value
equivalency at the wellhead. Given that the value ratio based on
the current price of crude oil as compared to natural gas is
significantly different than the energy equivalency of 6:1,
utilizing a 6:1 conversion basis may be misleading as an indication
of value.
Initial Production Rates
References in this press release to IP rates, other short-term
production rates or initial performance measures relating to new
wells are useful in confirming the presence of hydrocarbons;
however, such rates are not determinative of the rates at which
such wells will commence production and decline thereafter and are
not indicative of long-term performance or of ultimate recovery.
While encouraging, readers are cautioned not to place reliance on
such rates in calculating the aggregate production for the Company.
Accordingly, the Company cautions that the test results should be
considered to be preliminary.
SOURCE InPlay Oil Corp.