DiscoverGold
1 week ago
Gold Bulls Hold Control After Channel Breakouts
By: Bruce Powers | April 15, 2025
🔸 Gold’s bullish posture remains intact following two key breakouts, as buyers defend support and prepare for potential gains toward $3,298, $3,335, and $3,355.
Gold retained a bullish posture on Tuesday as it consolidated within Monday’s price range with a high of $3,233 and a low of $3,208. Monday’s high reached a new record high of $3,246, which was only slightly above last week’s high of $3,245. Notice that support was seen today and yesterday at a top trend channel line (blue). A breakout of the channel triggered on Friday, and it was confirmed by both a daily and weekly close above the line.
Earlier last week there was a confirmed breakout above a larger trend channel that is marked with purple lines. The confirmed breakouts of the channels showed strength in demand for gold, while the subsequent test of the top line, which previously represented resistance, is another step towards the potential continuation of the bull trend.
Short-term Weakness Below $3,194
Nonetheless, a drop below today’s low will show short-term weakness and further still on a decline below Monday’s low of $3,194. However, Fridays low of $3,173 is a better judge of support for the three-day price range. And it can be considered along with the April 3 high of $3,168. That was the most recent trend bull breakout level. Both the top purple channel line and the 20-Day MA, now at $3,086, are key potential support areas to watch.
Higher Targets Start at $3,298
On the upside, a decisive breakout above $3,246 has gold heading towards higher potential targets. First, there is a price zone from $3,298 to $3,306, identified from relatively short-term Fibonacci measurements. Subsequently, there are two higher targets at $3,335 and $3,355. The first higher target is a 261.8% extension of the decline from the 2011 peak. Given its very long-term nature, that price level may have greater significance. The next price level is a 200% extended target from a rising ABCD pattern that begins from the August 2018 low.
Bullish Engulfing Pattern on Weekly Chart
There is also a bullish pattern on the weekly chart (not shown) as last week completed a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern with a new record high closing price. Given the reaction so far this week, the bulls remain in charge. Confirmed breakouts of two rising channels provide a similar bullish assessment of current demand.
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DiscoverGold
1 week ago
Precious Metals Sector Update - Big Golds Major Breakout...
By: Clive Maund | April 14, 2025
The main purpose of this update is to make the point that for the first time since this major bull market phase began early last year, investors are starting to take a serious interest in Precious Metals’ stocks with major breakouts in a range of large and mid-cap gold stocks last week. This means that the sector advance has much further to go, a point that is rammed home by the almost tragic reading of the silver / gold ratio which we will have a look at in this update. We’ll start by swiftly reviewing the latest gold charts, then silver, then the revealing ratio charts, then Precious Metals’ charts (GDX) and lastly take a quick look at the dollar index.
We will begin with a 2-year chart for SPDR Gold Shares which is a reliable proxy for gold and the reason for using this chart instead of the gold chart is that it shows volume, which is important at this juncture. We are looking at a 2-year chart because it shows all of the bull market from when it broke out of its giant Cup & Handle consolidation pattern to begin this major bull market phase. On this chart we can that it has arrived at the upper rails of two channels in an overbought state, and with volume having become heavy, it looks like it is in need of a rest. However, it may not get much of one given the likelihood of an attack on Iran in coming weeks. At the time of writing on Monday morning it is reacting back and it is entitled to, and dips may be bought. Note that the uptrend may be becoming steeper, hence the steeper channel drawn on the chart.
On gold’s 6-year log chart we see that it has risen to the upper rail of its orderly strong uptrend, hence this morning’s creation. So it could use a rest here, although as mentioned above, given what’s going on in the world it may get much of one and before long this uptrend could accelerate and get even steeper. It’s worth observing on this chart that gold was not bothered at all by the recent selloff in the stock market (S&P500 index is shown at the top) – on the contrary, it rose.
The long-term log chart going back to the start of the millenium, i.e. to the start of 2000, gives broader perspective and enables us to see that gold is advancing away in an orderly uptrend from a Cup & Handle continuation pattern that is so gigantic it can clearly support a bull market that will take it much higher than the current price.
Silver meanwhile continues to “drag its feet” like an unwilling child being taken for a walk by gold and it’s remarkable to see on its 2-year chart that it is no higher than it was 11-months ago. This is actually normal early on in a growth phase for the sector and it’s what you want to see, for its a reliable sign that the sector is going much higher.
On its 7-year log chart it is again remarkable to see that silver is still only a shade higher than its mid-2020 and early 2021 highs. However it is “slowly getting with the plot” and is actually in position to slingshot higher which would certainly catch a lot of people by surprise.
The long-term log chart going back to the start of the millenium, i.e. to the start of 2000, gives broader perspective and enables us to see that silver is just starting to advance out of a gigantic Cup & Handle base that is similar to the gigantic Cup & Handle continuation pattern that launched gold higher and a base of this magnitude can clearly support a massive bull market. So there is everything to go for with silver which is viewed as the best investment of all at this time, although gold is where the action is right now.
Now we will look at a couple of ratio charts and start by looking at what is probably the most important chart in this update, which is the long-term chart showing the silver to gold ratio. The rationale behind interpreting this chart is this; when there is a lot of speculative interest in the PM sector, investors favor silver over gold, because it has the capacity to make bigger percentage gains faster – this is what we saw when the sector peaked in 2011 with silver hitting $50 in the late Spring of that year and gold topping out later in the year in September which is why the silver over gold ratio hit a peak. When, on the other hand, the silver over gold ratio is at a low level it means that speculative interest in the sector is at a low ebb, investors have no interest in it, which is very bullish as it means that there is the potential for it to go much higher. This is what we saw at the ratio lows in 2003 before the sector headed much higher, at the lows of the 2008 broad market crash which dragged the PMs down with it (that won’t happen this time as we have seen in recent weeks) and at the time of the Covid Crash in the Spring of 2020 when we saw a freak low as the Goyim thought that the world was coming to an end. As we can see on this chart the ratio dropped to a very very low level just last week as gold soared and silver didn’t do much, not so far from the Covid Crash freak lows. This sort of low reading means that there remains very little retail interest in the sector – this is very bullish for the sector and for silver in particular which is regarded as a “steal” at these prices. As Mike Maloney pointed out in a recent video “I’m Saddened…Whales Are Scooping Up Gold and Silver Not the Middle Class “ Big Money is mopping up gold and silver as fast as it can while the middle class are for the most part just standing around gaping like frightened rabbits.
Now to our other ratio chart that we have been tracking for a while the ratio of gold to the S&P500 index which shows that gold’s big rise over the past year has “barely moved the needle” on the long-term chart compared to the broad US stock market against which it is still at a low historic valuation. This started to change just this year…
On the shorter-term 2-year chart for the ratio of gold to the S&P500 index however we can see that there has been a dramatic shift just this year in favour of gold and while there may be some rebalancing of this ratio as it is so overbought short-term, it is expected to continue to much higher levels as implied by the long-term chart above.
Now we come to the main subject of this article which is the sudden increase in interest in the Precious Metals sector, and it’s about time, considering how much gold has risen.
We can see this sudden increase in interest on the year-to-date chart for GDX on which we can observe that, after trending steadily higher from the start of this year, it suddenly zoomed higher last week in a straight up move, which was the result of a number of major breakouts by large and mid-cap gold stocks. Whilst it is clearly overbought here with the gap up on Friday suggesting temporary exhaustion and a possible reaction, the move itself has strongly bullish implications.
The 6-year chart for GDX is most illuminating as it reveals that the PM sector has only just started to advance in a serious manner following its recent breakout from a giant Bowl pattern that has been forming from mid-2020 and is only just completing now. A Bowl of this magnitude can support a major bull market and it is clear, looking at this chart, that a major bull market has only just begun and also that there is plenty of scope for the sector to accelerate away to the upside from here…
Lastly, the 5-year chart for the US dollar index shows us a big reason why the Precious Metals are likely to accelerate away to the upside. Last week the dollar broke down from a large top area and having done so is vulnerable to a severe decline. This is hardly surprising given that the rest of the world is looking to ditch the dollar after Trump’s tariff rampage of the past several weeks and bearing in mind that trillions more dollars are set to be spirited into existence to effect a massive bailout of failing hedge funds.
As mentioned above, one of the reasons for the strong performance by GDX last week was that several gold stocks are breaking out of giant base patterns. An example is IAMGOLD which was recommended for purchase on the site in February at $6.24. Here is the chart for IAMGOLD posted on the site last Friday showing how it is on the point of breaking out of the top of a giant Double Bottom base pattern and once it succeeds in breaking clear out of it, it should rise very rapidly as indicated and of course many large golds will probably do likewise. If we do see it slip back into pattern on a minor sector reaction it will provide an excuse to buy more.
So, in conclusion, it looks like we are still in the early stages of what should prove to be an epochal bull market for the Precious Metals sector, that could dwarf all previous ones.
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DiscoverGold
1 week ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | April 12, 2025
🔸 Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 8, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 200.7k, down 37.7k.
Gold shot up another 6.6 percent to $3,237/ounce this week. It has now rallied for 13 out of the last 15 weeks. The metal bottomed December 30th last year when it ticked $2,608. Between then and now, gold has posted one after another record, breaking down one after another resistance.
Its most recent breakout came on March 13th when it busted out of $2,950s, where it went sideways for a month. This Monday, this is where gold bugs showed up, as the session touched $2,957 intraday; earlier, gold came under slight pressure after rising to $3,168 on the 2nd this month. The next time the yellow metal comes under pressure, bulls and bears are likely to lock heads at/around $3,160s.
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DiscoverGold
1 week ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | April 12, 2025
NY Gold Futures closed today at 32446 and is trading up about 22% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. As of now, this market has been rising for 3 months going into April reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 32630 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 28663. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 31620.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2025. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 10 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Solely focusing on only the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 31602.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of April 7th at 32630, which was up 21 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 11th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 32630 to 29704. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 32630 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 32630. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 29774 which we are still currently trading above for now.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 16 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 17 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 26170 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Gold Three White Soldiers Signal Powerful XAU Rally Breakout
By: Bruce Powers | April 11, 2025
🔸 Gold surged to a new record high, breaking multiple trend channels and forming bullish candlestick patterns that signal potential continuation toward the $3,300 level.
Gold’s advance continued into its third consecutive day of strong gains on Friday, reaching a new record high of $3,245 before stalling its ascent. The rally triggered a decisive breakout above a top channel line (blue), which followed a second breakout attempt of a larger trend channel on Thursday (purple). Since Thursday’s session closed above the purple channel line, the breakout was confirmed.
The breakout of the blue channel looks likely to be confirmed today with a daily close above the line. Trading continues in the top third of the day’s trading range at the time of this writing, with a likely similar strong close for the day and therefore the week. The week will end with a bullish engulfing pattern on that higher time frame as the body of the candle (open to close) covers the full range from Thursday. Furthermore, there may be added significance to the week beginning bearish with a decline and test of support around the prior trend high of $2,955.
Three White Soldiers Form
The three-day advance took the form of the three white soldiers candlestick pattern, which primarily are part of a bullish reversal. Three tall green candles with a closing price near the highs, small or no tales, and sequential higher daily highs and higher lows define that pattern. It reflects strong demand during the three-day advance, with a likely upside continuation breakout. When combined with the breakouts of the two trend channels, the potential is heightened. Whether the bullish implications occur quickly or take a little time, however, remains to be seen.
Pi Ratio Reached
Resistance for the day was seen just shy of the 3.414% (pi) extended retracement of the short-term pullback that began from the February interim swing high of $2,956. Also, there is a long-term 250% extended retracement of the decline from the September 2011 high at $3,232, and it looks like gold may end the day very close to that long-term target. Nevertheless, since it is derived from a long-term pattern, it has potential significance, particularly when joined by other target levels.
Breakout to New High is Bullish
A decisive breakout above today’s high of $3,245 triggers a potential bullish continuation for gold. The next upside target is then around $3,300. At the same time, resistance could be seen either before or after a new high. Today’s low of $3,173 is the obvious near-term support level watch so far.
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DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Gold Hits New High, Eyes Breakout Above $3,175
By: Bruce Powers | April 10, 2025
🔸 Gold's surge continues, reaching $3,175 and triggering another breakout attempt; traders eye $3,205 and higher, while preparing for a possible pullback if strength diminishes.
Gold continued to strengthen on Thursday, reaching a slightly new record high of $3,175. The prior high was $3,168 and the highest daily closing price for gold was $3,131. This means that today’s closing price will likely be the highest ever, further confirming the strength of the trend. Trading continues near the highs of the day at the time of this writing and gold looks likely to end the day in a bullish position, in the top third of the day’s trading range.
Two Strong Up Days
Today is the second sequential strong up day for gold as represented with the wide range green candles. Might a similar third day of gains be possible or will potential resistance lead to a pullback before gold attempts to go higher? Since three strong moves following a bearish pullback would provide a three white soldiers candlestick pattern, the possibility of a third strong up day needs to be considered. But, of course, a decisive breakout above today’s high would need to occur to signal that possibility. Otherwise, today’s high, which reached a potential significant resistance area, may lead to a pullback into Thursday’s trading range.
Higher Target Starting at $3,199
The next higher target above the prior record high was $3,170 and it slightly exceeded today. That price target is noted given how close it is to the top rising trend channel (blue) covering the advance from the December lows. A more significant potential target is up around $3,199 to $3,205. Since the market seems to be recognizing that top channel line, it can be watched along with the higher target zone. Following the $3,205 target are higher targets of $3,232 and 3,250.
Second Chanel Breakout Attempt
In addition to signs of strength noted above, today’s advance triggered a second breakout attempt from a larger long-term rising parallel trend channel (purple). The first breakout last week failed but this second attempt may have greater success. If the breakout is sustained, then bullish continuation within the smaller trend channel parameters becomes more likely.
Potential Support on Pullback
Therefore, the top purple channel line is potential support and is currently around $3,126 but since the line is rising the price will change. There are also prior weekly highs at $3,087 and $3,058 where support could be seen. Since this week established a wide trading range, a bearish pullback could result in volatility being higher than normal pullbacks.
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DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Gold Rebounds Sharply, Bulls Reclaim Key Technical Levels
By: Bruce Powers | April 9, 2025
• After bouncing from $2,956 support, gold surged past technical levels, confirming bullish momentum with potential to test the $3,168 high and beyond.
Gold triggered a one-day bullish reversal on Wednesday following initial weakness near the start of the trading session. Subsequently, a bullish outside day has formed with gold reaching a three-day high of $3,099 and it continues to trade near the highs of the day at the time of this writing. During the advance, an uptrend line and 20-Day MA were reclaimed following a couple days trading below those lines.
Gold continues to trade above the 20-Day line, now at $3,043, and it looks likely to close above it. Also, there is a prior minor swing high of $3,058 that was exceeded during today’s rally. That high was also a weekly high from three weeks ago. A daily close above that high will also provide confirmation of strength.
Relatively Quick Recovery
Although gold fell below potential trend support represented by both the trendline and 20-Day MA on Monday, the quick recovery shows the bulls back in charge and the integrity of the short-uptrend intact. A daily close above the 20-Day MA will confirm strength indicated by today’s bullish reversal. Monday’s corrective low of $2,956 established a higher swing low and completed a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of an internal upswing and a successful test of support near prior resistance that marked the most recent bullish breakout at $2,956.
In addition to finding support around two key price levels, the 50-Day MA was slightly below that price area as well. The 50-Day line continues to rise and has reached $2,953 currently. The 50-Day MA now represents a key trend support area moving forward.
Rally Follows Minor Pullback
Gold’s sharp advance following a relatively minor retracement is bullish but needs further signs of strength to indicate whether it can continue to rise in the near-term. Certainly, a minor pullback may occur before an attempt is made to challenge the recent new record high of $3,168. Potential support levels to watch include the 20-Day MA, Tuesday’s high of $3,023, and the uptrend line. Once today’s advance is further established, the rising trendline will move to this week’s low.
First Upside Target at $3,177
If the record high is approached there is a top trend channel line (blue) slightly above the level and a short-term rising ABCD target a little higher at $3,177. That channel line represented resistance recently and it may do so again. Further up is the confluence of two indicators at $3,199.
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DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Gold Holds Above Key Support Amid Ongoing Downward Pressure
By: Bruce Powers | April 8, 2025
• Gold consolidates after falling from record highs, testing support near the 50-Day MA, with both bullish and bearish scenarios hinging on upcoming price action.
Gold consolidated within a range of $2,975 to $3,023 on Tuesday and traded for a second day below the 20-Day MA, now at $3,036. An inside day will complete today reflecting consolidation following a $2.11 or 6.8% decline from the recent $3,168 record high to Monday’s low of $2,956. That drop broke below an internal uptrend line but found support around a prior trend high of $2,955 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $2,961. And gold remains above the 50-Day MA trend indicator, at $2,937 currently.
Inside Day Consolidation
The inside day pattern may complete as a bearish doji shooting start candlestick pattern. Although that pattern is typically more reliable at market tops, it still reflects sellers being in control for the day, as the day’s closing price is set to be near the lows of the day. Therefore, a decline below $2,975 will trigger a breakdown of the inside day shooting star pattern.
Shows Relative Strength
Gold has held up better than many assets during recent global market volatility as it has only fallen by 6.7% and it remains above the 50-Day MA. Although dropping below the rising trendline and 20-Day MA are signs of weakness, the relationship to the 50-Day line is now key support. If gold remains above the 50-Day MA, it has a chance for the advance to continue. But a decisive decline below the 50-Day line could change that.
50-Day Moving Average Support is Key
Lower potential support levels that are below the 50-Day line, include a 78.6% retracement level at $2,904, a 50% retracement of a larger swing at $2,875, and a prior interim swing low at $2,833. Those price areas can be watched for possible support along with the next lower long-term uptrend line (purple). If the 50-Day MA fails as support, the next trend indicator is the purple uptrend line, and therefore it has a good chance of being reached if gold drops below and then stays below the 50-Day MA.
Upside Breakout Faces 20-Day Moving Average
On the upside, a one-day bullish reversal above today’s high of $3,023 may lead to a test of resistance around the 20-Day MA at $3,036. Then there is Monday’s high of $3,055. Gold would need to trade above and stay above $2,023 before it has a chance to challenge recent highs.
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DiscoverGold
2 weeks ago
Is Now the Right Time to Buy the Dip in Gold?
By: Phil Carr | April 7, 2025
President Trump touted Wednesday as a landmark moment in U.S history, saying his onslaught of tariffs against much of the world would “Make America Wealthy Again.”
Market Meltdown: The Aftermath of Trump’s Tariff Policy
The most highly anticipated week of the year and quite possibly the most pivotal moment in economic history took place last Wednesday with President Donald Trump sending shockwaves through the global economy after announcing reciprocal tariffs on more than 150 countries around the world.
In a bold and historic speech, President Donald Trump declared April 2, 2025 as “Liberation Day”, while many of the world’s leading economists labelled it as “Demolition Day”.
President Trump announced new import tariffs covering more than 150 countries. The percentages ranged from 10% for quite a few countries including the UK, up to 49% for Cambodia. China received an additional 34% tariff rate above existing ones, while the EU was hit with a 20% rate.
President Trump touted Wednesday as a landmark moment in U.S history, saying his onslaught of tariffs against much of the world would “Make America Wealthy Again.” Instead, the announcement of the steepest levies seen in over a century sparked one of the biggest stock market sell-offs ever – wiping out a total of $6.6 trillion off the global equity markets in two days. That figure brings the total market capitalization lost since Trump’s Inauguration in January to over $11.1 trillion, so far this year.
But, here’s where things really start to get interesting.
Global trading volumes hit an all-time record $26.4 billion on Friday as savvy traders rushed to capitalize on the lucrative opportunity to “short everything” and buy back at massive discount.
Wealth creation opportunities of this magnitude are truly rare and do not come around very often. According to data compiled by GSC Commodity Intelligence – “Stock market crashes of the scale seen in the aftermath of Trump’s Liberation Day have only happened four times in history”.
The first three occasions were the 1987 Stock Market Crash, the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and more recently the Pandemic in 2020. On each and every one of these occasions – the Federal Reserve immediately swooped in and slashed interest rates.
The big question now is:
Will The Fed Be Forced To Cut Interest Rates Due To Trump’s Tariffs?
Only time will tell, however one thing we do know for certain is that President Trump has repeatedly calling for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates immediately.
Once again on Friday, Trump openly urged Fed Chair Jerome Powell to act swiftly. “This would be a PERFECT time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut Interest Rates. He is always ‘late,’ but he could now change his image, and quickly.”
To quote analysts at GSC Commodity Intelligence – “regardless of whatever scenario plays out from here, whether that’s a Recession, Stagflation or even an Emergency Rate Cut by the Federal Reserve – all the above present an extremely bullish backdrop for Precious Metal prices”. That’s welcoming news for the bulls, but painful for anyone sitting on the sidelines, who must now decide how much FOMO they can handle.
Whichever way you look at it, one thing is clear. The case for precious metals in a well-diversified portfolio has never been more obvious than it is right now. Any substantial pullbacks should be viewed as buying opportunities because prices won’t stay low for long!
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2 weeks ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | April 5, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 1, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 238.4k, down 11.4k.
Gold has been rallying since December 30th last year when it ticked $2,608. Going into this week, it had rallied for 12 out of 13 weeks. If this week’s highs held, the positive momentum would have extended to 13 out of 14, but that was not to be. The yellow metal reversed lower after tagging $3,164 on Thursday, and the reversal took place in a risk-off week. For the week, it fell 1.4 percent to $3,040/ounce and was up 2.6 percent at Thursday’s fresh all-time high.
Before this week’s reversal, gold has remained extended on nearly all timeframes. It just about went parabolic for over a year. In February last year, the yellow metal touched $1,984. Unwinding probably lies ahead.
In the event of selling pressure, a lot depends on if gold bugs will be able to defend $3,000 and $2,940s-50s after that.
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2 weeks ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | April 5, 2025
NY Gold Futures closed today at 30354 and is trading up about 14% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. Up to now, this market has been rising for 3 months going into April reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 32016 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 28663. Nevertheless, this market is currently trading below last month's close of 31503.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2025. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 10 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 30475 and support forming below at 30082. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 31st at 32016, which was up 20 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 11th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 32016 to 30327. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 32016 made 0 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 27200 and 30882. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 32016. Here the market is trading weak gravitating more toward support than resistance. We have technical support lying at 30827 which we are currently trading below implying the market is very weak. This infers that this level will now be resistance. Our Major Channel Support lies at 29231 and a break of that level would be a bearish indication for this market.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 15 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 17 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 26170 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
Gold Faces Bearish Reversal After Record High, Key Support Tested
By: Bruce Powers | April 4, 2025
• Gold’s rally reversed sharply, confirming bearish signals and testing key support levels, with the potential for deeper declines if the 20-Day MA fails to hold.
Gold was not immune to growing uncertainty related to the developing trade war. On Friday, it continued to decline following a new record high of $3,168 that was hit on Thursday. Thursday concluded with a bearish reversal candle exhibiting a broad range. Given bearish follow-through today, that pattern proved to be prescient. Sellers dominated throughout Friday’s trading session and remained in charge at the time of this writing. Trading continues near the lows of the day, which is currently $3,106.
Will 20-Day Moving Average Support Hold?
So far, support has been seen near the lows of the day but there is no sign of strength that could lead to a rally. However, the day’s lows are around potential support represented by the 20-Day MA, now at $3,028. If support around the 20-Day line continues to hold, there is the potential for at least a bounce. Today is the first test of support around the 20-Day MA since it was reclaimed on March 12.
That first test can result in a reversal. However, A failure of the line to hold as support would provide another bearish signal. The next key potential support area is a little below the moving average at $2,999. That price range is derived from a previous higher swing low and the 50% retracement level. Moreover, there is a rising trendline around that price zone as well.
Resistance Holds at Top of Channels
Gold failed to break out above two rising parallel trend channels recently, one outlined on the chart in purple and the other with blue lines. Thursday’s rally was a new trend high and the fourth day that resistance was seen near the top line of the small blue channel. Also, today’s decline saw a definitive breakdown below the top purple channel line. A failed breakout through the top of the channel could eventually lead to a test of support near the lower end of the channel.
Downside Risk Dominates
Regardless of whether gold swings that far, the potential for further downside from current levels due to the signs of a bearish reversal from of two channels, raises downside risk. But first gold would need to fall below the 20-Day MA, then the 50% retracement. After that it should head towards the $2,961 price area, which includes the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Since gold would be below a rising trendline at that point, the 50-Day MA at $2,938 could surely be approached as well. Finally, this week is set to end with a potential bearish weekly shooting start candlestick pattern. A drop below $3,016 would be needed to trigger the pattern.
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DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
Gold XAU/USD Remains Near Highs – Will Bulls Extend the Rally?
By: Bruce Powers | April 2, 2025
• Despite forming a potential reversal pattern, gold holds key support. A breakout above $3,153 could extend gains, while a breakdown may target $3,077.
Gold maintained signs of upward momentum on Wednesday, as the risk of a bearish pullback increased at the same time. A new record high of $3,149 was established on Tuesday, with the day ending with a potentially bearish shooting star candlestick pattern. But the pattern is not valid until there is a drop below the Tuesday’s low of $3,101.
That did not happen today as Wednesday’s price range at the time of this writing was $3,108 to $3,136, which is an inside day. It is interesting to note that there is the possibility that gold closes the day’s session at its highest daily closing price ever. That would happen with a daily close above Monday’s closing price of $3,124.
Retains Channel Breakout
Notice that there is a higher daily low today and that support for the past two days was at a prior top trend channel line (purple). That line is the top of a long-term channel starting from February 2024. Signs of support at a prior resistance line is a sign of strengthening.
Nonetheless, what happens next is what matters. Is the bull channel breakout sustained or is it followed by a decline back into the channel. There is also a smaller rising parallel trend channel (blue) on the chart marking resistance around Tuesday’s high. That high also completed a 261.8% retracement of the bearish correction begun in the second half of February at $3,153.
Above $3,153 is $3,170
Especially if gold can stay above the top purple channel line, it has a chance to continue towards higher potential targets. Above the 261.8% retracement level is a small target range from $3,170 to $3,177, consisting of the 250% retracement of the October 2024 decline, and the initial target from a rising ABCD pattern, respectively.
Bearish Shooting Start Triggers Below $3,101
On the downside, a drop below Wednesday’s low of $3,108 puts Tuesday’s low of $3,101 at risk of failing as well. Gold would then be back below the top channel line and likely heading towards a test of support around the prior pivot around $3,077, and the recent high at $3,058. Further down is potential support at the 20-Day MA, now at $3,012.
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DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
Gold Record High Challenges Resistance, Bearish Reversal Possible
By: Bruce Powers | April 1, 2025
• Gold’s rally stalled at key resistance near $3,153. A bearish shooting star pattern suggests a pullback unless support holds, with upside potential extending to $3,170.
Gold extended its bull trend on Tuesday to reach a new record high of $3,149. Subsequently, resistance was seen, leading to an intraday pullback. At the time of this writing, gold is trading weak, in the lower half of the day’s $3,101 to $3,149 trading range. And it may end the day in a similar position. If it does, a bearish shooting start candlestick pattern will be formed, leaving gold prone to a deeper pullback. However, it is not a valid pattern unless there is a breakdown below Tuesday’s low of $3,101.
Price Vibrates Within Trend Channels
Is there significance to the day’s high of $3,149 that is supportive of a pullback? That high happens to be near resistance represented by a top parallel trend channel line (blue) and a $3,153 target, The target is the 261.8% extension of the retracement from the February decline (BC). Although the top blue channel line was initially exceeded earlier in the day’s trading session, the subsequent bearish reaction indicates that resistance has been seen around that price area.
The blue channel line represents a rising channel that is the second and shorter of two channels that are outlined on the enclosed chart. The larger channel is outlined with purple lines and the shorter with blue lines. A rising parallel channel can help spot potential support or resistance as a trend progresses higher.
Weakening Momentum
Yesterday, the upper boundary of the larger channel was exceeded to the upside, establishing today’s support level at that line. In other words, prior resistance has been recognized as support, which can be a bullish sign. That advance also triggered a potential bull breakout of the larger channel. It is a potential breakout as it needs to be sustained and followed by further signs of strength. So far, that is not the case and therefore today’s bearish behavior may lead to a failed channel breakout. If the bearish shooting star triggers, initial potential support areas look to be around $3,077 and $3,058.
Bullish Continuation Targets $3,170
There remains a possibility that the larger channel breakout is retained by support continuing around or above the top purple line. However, the breakout of the channel is a sign of potential overbought conditions, along with the overbought position of the relative strength index (RSI). If that is the case then a more specific test of the $3,153 target could occur, gold extends higher towards the next target of $3,170.
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3 weeks ago
GLD SPDR Gold Trust completed a long-term cup and handle breakout, hitting its measured move near $283...
By: TrendSpider | March 30, 2025
• Gold has surged past $3,000 as central banks accelerate reserve buying, global tensions escalate, and the dollar softens. On the chart, GLD completed a long-term cup and handle breakout, hitting its measured move near $283. At the same time, the RSI Ensemble Indicator is flashing overbought conditions, hinting at a possible short-term pause. Still, with demand strong and uncertainty rising, gold's rally may be far from over.
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DiscoverGold
3 weeks ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | March 29, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 25, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 249.8k, down 8.1k.
As unreal as it may sound, gold has now rallied for 12 out of the last 13 weeks. This week, it added a couple of percent to $3,082/ounce, closing near Friday’s session high $3,086. The yellow metal has been rallying since ticking $2,608 on December 30th last year.
Not surprisingly, gold is extended on nearly all timeframes. It has just about gone parabolic for a year now. In February last year, the yellow metal touched $1,984. Gold bugs have done an excellent job of sustaining the up momentum, aided by breakouts followed by successful retests. This Friday, gold broke out of short-term resistance at $3,050s. In the event of selling pressure near term, this is the one to watch for now. After that lies $3,000 and $2,960s-70s.
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getmenews
3 weeks ago
Here's the problem with a short call at this stage,
For every $4,000 value per ounce, it can erase 1T of debt, "Gold is only $3118 today 3/30325",
Current Debt is 36T x the above number would value Gold at?
If I'm a foreign debt holder, BTC isn't even on my radar, if so, is BTC headed to 16K before it can stabilize?
At time of printing, looking at SLV, it appears it is undervalued by at least 100%,
Nice day
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3 weeks ago
Gold Extends Gains, Eyes $3,125 Amid Strong Bullish Momentum
By: Bruce Powers | March 28, 2025
• Gold surged to a record $3,087, confirming strong bullish momentum, with investors eyeing resistance levels at $3,125 and $3,177 for potential further gains.
Gold continued its advance on Friday, reaching a new record high of $3,087. Therefore, a target zone around $3,080, derived by the confluence of several Fibonacci price levels, was exceeded, but only slightly. A daily close today above that price level will be slightly more bullish than a close below it. At the time of this writing gold continues to trade near the highs of the day and looks likely to close in a bullish position, in the upper third of the day’s price range.
Higher Targets in Sight
A decisive rally above today’s high will trigger a continuation of the bullish trend. Gold would then be heading up into potential resistance indicated by a top trend channel line. However, other than the trendline, the next higher target shows around $3,125. It is derived from a rising ABCD pattern that begins from the December interim swing low. A little higher from there is the 261.8% extension of the bearish correction begun from the late-October swing high. That price area is followed by a minor confluence zone around $3,169.
Third Weekly Bull Pattern
This week is the third consecutive week of higher weekly highs and higher lows, that began after two weeks of consolidation and the breakout of an inside week. The high prior to consolidation ended seven consecutive weeks of higher highs and lows. Adding a rising ABCD pattern to the low of December 16 and including the low of the most recent pullback low on March 11, estimates a potential initial target from the pattern at $3,177. Keep in mind that as the bull trend continues to advance there is the potential for an eventual runaway move.
Bullish Monthly Close Likely
Since the month of March has only one more trading day, it looks likely that it will leave gold in a very bullish position on the long-term time frame. Is this a prelude of what is to come or a sign that the price of gold has gone too far, too fast? For now, the expectation is for higher price. Therefore, intraday weakness will likely be used by investors and traders to add to positions or open new positions in the precious metal. However, a sustained drop below today’s low of $3,054 could start to change that.
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3 weeks ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 29, 2025
NY Gold Futures closed today at 31143 and is trading up about 17% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. Factually, this market has been rising for 2 months going into March reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 31244 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 28022. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 29740.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2025. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 10 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 30550.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 24th at 31244, which was up 19 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 11th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 31244 to 30077. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 31244 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 31244. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 30548 which we are still currently trading above for now.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 14 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 16 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 25400 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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4 weeks ago
Gold Precious Metal Poised for Further Gains
By: Bruce Powers | March 27, 2025
• Gold's surge to a new high of $3,060 underscores its bullish momentum, with a close above $3,058 confirming a trend continuation.
It looks like gold is ready to head higher rather than establishing a deeper bearish correction first. Gold rallied to a new record high of $3,060 on Thursday and it is set to close in a bullish position, in the top quarter of the day’s trading range. The rally followed the low for the day at $3,033. At the time of this writing, gold continues to trade near the highs of the day. A daily close above the prior high at $3,058 will confirm the trend continuation breakout signal and more so if the week completes with gold above that price level.
Pointing Higher
The next higher target for gold is at $3,079, defined by the confluence of several Fibonacci levels. And it certainly can keep rising given today’s trend continuation signal. Following that price zone there is an early 78.6% target for the CD leg of a rising ABCD pattern at $3,125. Otherwise, watch the area around the rising trend channel line as it may mark a resistance area. After that the next confluence zone is around $3,148 and $3,154.
Top Channel Line May Be Tested
Gold’s behavior around the lower top trend channel line should be telling as it represents the top of a large ascending parallel trend channel from a low in October 2023. The larger the pattern, the more significant the price level may be. There is also a shorter and current trend channel on the chart highlighted in green. The top line from that channel is higher than the larger channel line. Notice that the $3,125 price level could be reached even if resistance was seen at the initial channel line. It will depend on how the angle of ascent for the advance.
Daily Close Above $3,057 Confirms Breakout
Regardless of the above bullish signs, a daily close above $3,057 is needed to confirm the breakout. Gold would need to fall below today’s low of $3,018 before giving a bearish signal. The 20-Day MA marks a key trend support area and will continue to do so if gold continues higher. Despite the possibility that the price is getting more extended, a projection from the closest ABCD pattern (not shown) has an initial target at $3,177.
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4 weeks ago
Gold Consolidates Near All-Time High, Key Support Levels Eyed
By: Bruce Powers | March 26, 2025
• Gold continues consolidating near record highs, with support at $2,999. A breakdown below key levels could shift momentum toward further downside.
Gold consolidated for a third day in a row on Wednesday and it will likely end the session with a relatively narrow inside day. The consolidation range runs from last Friday’s low of $2,999 to Tuesday’s high at $3,036. Each day’s price range for this week has been inside the range from last Friday.
This reflects continued demand as the consolidation pattern as the price of gold has held up not much lower than the recent all-time high at $3,057. On the weekly chart, a relatively narrow inside week has formed, reflecting consolidation on that time frame.
Weekly Bull Pattern
Last week’s low was $2,982 and it is part of the trend structure of higher weekly lows, and therefore a potential support area. If the current weekly uptrend pattern of higher weekly lows is to be retained, support for the pullback would need to be seen at or above that price area. Nevertheless, there is potential support a little lower starting with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $2,971.
Notice that the 20-Day MA (purple) is rising, and it rose above the prior trend high of $2,956 today. The 20-Day line represents a key potential support zone following the reclaim of the line on March 12. It is now at $2,959. This pullback would be the first test of the 20-Day MA as support since then. Since it is also associated with other key initial price levels, there is a good chance that support is seen.
Intraday Pattern is Bearish
Although the short-term consolidation may continue to evolve a while longer, a drop below $2,999 will signal a continuation of the decline. Further insight is provided by the 1-Hour intraday chart (not shown). It shows a breakdown from a head and shoulders topping pattern last week, followed by two successful tests of resistance around the neckline of the pattern this week.
And there is a parallel trend channel or bear flag type pattern below the neckline. Lines for both the neckline and bottom of the channel can be seen on the enclosed daily chart. Therefore, a dip below Tuesday’s low of $3,007 may provide a sign of weakness that could lead to a drop below $2,999.
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DiscoverGold
4 weeks ago
Gold Short-Term Strength Tested Amid Key Fibonacci Resistance
By: Bruce Powers | March 25, 2025
• Gold hit resistance at $3,036 and reversed intraday, suggesting uncertainty between a bullish breakout above $3,047 or a deeper correction below $2,999.
Gold rallied into resistance at $3,036 on Tuesday as it retraced the recent small decline. A 61.8% retracement was completed at $3,043 before resistance was seen and gold turned back down intraday. The low for the day was $3,007 gold is set to establish a higher high and higher low for the day. At the time of this writing, gold is at risk of closing in a relatively weak position, below the halfway point for the day’s trading range. That would be at $3,021.64.
Tuesday’s Price Range Has Key Price Levels
Following a new record high of $3,058 reached last Thursday, gold dropped to a low of $2,999 on Friday. That remains the low of the bearish pullback so far, which is not much. Near the record high for gold is the 200% extended retracement of the late-October bearish correction at $3,043. There looks to be two basic scenarios now developing in gold.
Either the bull trend continues towards a higher target, or a bearish correction continues. A higher daily high and higher low today showed short-term strength following a very minor decline. But a bearish reversal intraday at the 61.8% retracement and subsequent decline intraday suggests the possibility that a continuation of the pullback may follow.
Above $3,058 Targets $3,080
A rise above today’s high of $3,036 will show strength but gold would need to get above last Friday’s high of $3,047 before there is an indication that gold may challenge the recent high before a deeper pullback. If gold can subsequently exceed the record high it should have a chance to approach the next higher target around $3,080, which shows confluence of a couple Fibonacci levels. In addition, there is a top trend channel line (green highlight) that may present resistance a little above the higher price target.
38.2% Fibonacci Retracement and 20-Day MA Support
On the downside, a drop below Tuesday’s low of $3,007 indicates a likely deeper pullback while that is signaled on a drop below Friday’s low and the weekly low at $2,999. Downside initial targets include the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $2,972 and the prior trend high at $2,956. Notice that the 20-Day MA has converged with that prior high and it continues to rise. The 20-Day line is at $2,955 and it also presents an important short-term pullback target.
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DiscoverGold
4 weeks ago
Gold Cycle Update: U.S. Stocks Forming Key Low
By: Jim Curry | March 23, 2025
As mentioned in a prior article, the last correction of significance was due to play out with our 72-day time cycle, which ended up confirming a very early low - doing so with the late-February tag of 2844.10 (April, 2025 contract). With that, this wave is now seen as pushing higher overall into May, but with an in-between dip currently in force, coming from the smaller-degree cycles.
Gold, Short-Term
For the short-term picture, the smaller 10 and 20-day cycles are seen as heading slightly lower, with the next smaller-degree trough expected to come from these two waves. Shown below is the smaller 10-day component:
In terms of price, there is the potential for a drop back to the 10 and 20-day moving averages in the coming days, as these waves bottom out - with the lower 20-day average seen as key short-term support.
Gold's 72-Day Cycle
Stepping back, the upward phase of our larger 72-day cycle is deemed to be in force, ideally pushing higher into May, plus or minus. Shown below is that 72-day wave:
If the upward phase of this 72-day cycle is to remain intact, then the next short-term decline with the smaller 10 and 20-day cycles would be favored to end up as countertrend, holding above the 2882.50 figure (April, 2025 contract) - their most recent bottom.
Stepping back then, a countertrend dip with the 10 and 20-day waves would be favored to give way to higher highs on the next swing up. In terms of price, the 3100 figure (April, 2025 contract) would be an ideal magnet to the next rally phase of these waves, with the same acting as a key resistance level, plus or minus.
Going further, adding weight to the idea of 3100 as a potential magnet - and a key resistance level - is the intersection of the extrapolated 34 and 72-day upper cycle channels, shown on the next chart:
Adding to the notes above, support to the current short-term downward phase with the 10 and 20-day cycles would be at or near the rising lower 34-day cycle channel - which is currently around the 2960's - not too far from the aforementioned 20-day moving average for Gold.
Stepping back further, as mentioned in our Gold Wave Trader report, a statistical analysis of the bigger 72-day cycle suggests the potential for an eventual push up to 3185-3240 into May, though an in-between correction could come from that 3100 figure.
The 310-Day Cycle
Above the 72-day cycle in Gold, there is a larger 310-day wave, which sets the direction for the mid-term trend:
With the January break to higher highs for the bigger swing (i.e., taking out the October, 2024 peak), the upward phase of this 310-day wave is seen as extended, though does have some potential to peak with the current upward phase of the smaller 72-day cycle.
In terms of price, we do have a key number with this 310-day cycle, which is the 2844.10 swing low from February. This number needs to hold any near-term downside going forward, in order to keep the 310-day cycle's extended upward phase intact.
U.S. Stock Market, Mid-Term
For the U.S. stock market, as mentioned in some of my prior articles the 180 and 360-day time cycles were seen as pushing higher into the late-2024 to early-2025 region - before topping, and giving way to a sharp decline into this Spring.
Here again is the smaller 180-day cycle on the S&P 500:
In terms of time, the trough for our 180-day wave has been projected for April of this year, but with a larger plus or minus variance in either direction - due to the size of the 180 and 360-day waves.
As mentioned in prior articles, a normal correction with this 180-day wave in U.S. stocks would take prices back to the rising 200-day moving average - which has obviously been met with the sharp decline off the mid-February peak. Since we are now below this 200-day moving average, it will also act as a first level of resistance.
With the above said and noted, the next low (and rally) of significance is expected to come from the 180 and 360-day waves in U.S. stocks, which are projected to bottom this Spring (i.e., April, plus or minus). Shown below is a combination forecast, from these 180 and 360-day cycles:
From a statistical inference with our smaller 180-day wave, there is the potential for a rally of some 17-20% off the next 180 and 360-day low, playing out into later this year. However, this will depend on whether the current correction phase of these waves ends up as countertrend, holding above the 5119.26 SPX CASH figure - the August, 2024 low - the last trough for our 180-day cycle.
In terms of price, it is too early to confirm an upside reversal point for these 180 and 360-day cycles, though one should ideally develop at some point. If triggered, it will be noted in our Market Turns report, which tracks the U.S. stock market; stay tuned.
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1 month ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | March 22, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of March 18, 2025.
Gold: Currently net long 257.9k, up 21.8k.
There is no stopping the yellow metal. Gold added another 1.3 percent this week to $3,021/ounce, with Thursday registering a fresh intraday high of $3,057. This was an 11th up week in the last 12. Gold touched $2,608 on December 30th last year.
Not surprisingly, the metal remains overbought. In the event unwinding of this condition begins, what transpires at $2,960s-70s will be telling. Gold struggled at that range for two weeks last month before slightly coming under pressure and then bottoming on February 28th. The resistance was taken care of seven sessions ago.
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1 month ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 22, 2025
NY Gold Futures closed today at 30214 and is trading up about 14% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. As of now, this market has been rising for 2 months going into March reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 30652 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 28022. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 29740.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2025. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 10 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Distinctly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 30171 and overhead resistance forming above at 30475. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of March 17th at 30652, which was up 18 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 11th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 30652 to 29914. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 30652 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 30652. Here the market is trading weak gravitating more toward support than resistance. We have technical support lying at 30405 which we are currently trading below implying the market is very weak. This infers that this level will now be resistance. Our Major Channel Support lies at 27917 and a break of that level would be a bearish indication for this market.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 13 weeks which from a timing perspective warrants concern.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 16 months since the low established back in October 2023.
Critical support still underlies this market at 25400 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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BottomBounce
1 month ago
The ongoing gold price rally represents a dire warning for the future position of the U.S. dollar in international markets, according to Mohamed El-Erian, Former CEO of PIMCO and current president of Queens’ College, Cambridge.
“I think the gold issue is really important,” El-Erian said in an interview with Bloomberg on Wednesday morning ahead of the FOMC rate announcement. “You've heard me argue here [that] people cannot escape the dollar as a reserve currency, but they can start slowly doing two things. One is building pipes around it, and two, changing the asset allocation to include a little bit of other things. And gold is one of the other things.”
“This should be flashing yellow in Washington here, that if gold continues to go up, regardless of all this, it's broken down all its historical correlations,” he added. “There's something going on about the dollar internationally, and that's something that they have to take really seriously.” $GLD
DiscoverGold
1 month ago
Gold Rally Slows as Overbought Risks Emerge
By: Bruce Powers | March 20, 2025
• Gold’s strong weekly close suggests continued bullish momentum, but short-term risks remain if support at $3,026 fails.
Gold showed signs of slowing momentum on Thursday following a new record high of $3,058. And it has established another new daily high and daily low thereby keeping the daily uptrend structure intact. It showed strength by reaching a new record high and rising further above a price resistance zone that ended at $3,043. But it is at risk of completing the day in the red, below the opening price of $3,058, and at a lower daily closing price.
Pattern of Rising Closing Prices
Since the current leg of the rally began following a minor pullback to $2,880, now an interim swing low, each new day ended higher than the closing price of the prior day, except for one. That is a pattern that might change if Thursday’s trading session ends at a price below Wednesday’s closing price of $3,023. Nonetheless, the pattern of higher lows takes precedence, and it remains along with the pattern of higher daily highs.
Parallel Channels
There are two rising parallel trend channels shown on the chart. One is highlighted and the other shown with two rising blue parallel lines. The top of the channels provides an approximation of where signs of resistance may be seen. The top line of the larger channel is now lower and therefore would be approached next. Notice that it is crossing a small confluence zone around $3,080 today. That confluence zone marks the next higher target area. The lower channel line adds to its potential significance as a resistance zone.
Near Term Support at $3,026
Irrespective of the possibility of gold reaching higher targets before a pullback, a drop below today’s low of $3,026 might change that. It would be a sign of short-term weakness, but what happened next would be more important. For example, is the decline continuing or is there a quick recovery and rising prices? The price channels can assist in identifying oversold and overbought areas. Notice that the relative strength index (RSI) momentum oscillator is in overbought condition as a top channel line is approached.
Likely Bullish Weekly Pattern
With one more day to the week, gold is on track to end the week in the top quarter of the period’s trading range. That would show strong bullish momentum on a larger time frame than the daily. If this occurs, then it would seem the next higher target zone may have a better chance of being reached next week.
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DiscoverGold
1 month ago
Gold Hits Another Record High
By: Bruce Powers | March 19, 2025
• Gold surged to a new record high, breaking key resistance at $3,043, but may face overbought conditions that could lead to a pullback.
Gold reached its fourth new record high in five days on Wednesday, rising to $3,052. A new higher daily high and higher daily low will be established and a relatively narrow range day. The low for the day was $3,023. Strength will be confirmed by the closing price for Wednesday. At the time of this writing, gold is trading in the top half of the day’s trading range, and it is on track to have its highest ever daily closing price today. That will leave it poised for a possible continuation higher.
Resistance Zone Busted
In addition to continued bullish performance, today’s advance busted through a potential resistance zone that ended around $3,043. A daily close above that price level would provide another piece of bullish evidence for the trend. Once one price pivot is busted the next level becomes a potential target. The next higher price zone on the chart shows a potential price target around $3,078. That target is the 261.8% extended target for a rising ABCD pattern that began in November of last year. Notice that the target is also around potential resistance near two top trend channel lines. They can be watched as well since the $3,078 price level is nearby.
Bullish Weekly Pattern
Regardless of the potential for bullish continuation in the near-term, the price of gold is getting extended and due for a pullback or rest day or two, if not more. It remains to be seen whether a breakout through the $3,043 price zone will prevail or whether resistance will be seen before much more of an advance is seen. This week is set to be the third consecutive higher weekly high and higher weekly low, thereby establishing the weekly uptrend. Since last week’s high was $3,005, a weekly closing price above that high will confirm a bull trend breakout on the weekly time frame.
Support Levels
Today’s low of $3,023 is near-term support and weekly support is $2,982. A move through either of today’s price levels should help determine the next direction for gold. Rising trend channels are shown on the chart as they can assist in identifying when an asset may be overbought or oversold and targets. As with many consolidation patterns, once price is rejected from one boundary line of the pattern there is the possibility that price will eventually test the other side. Since the top two rising trend channels show upper boundary lines higher than current prices, the top lines become potential targets.
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