Three swing states, Arizona, Georgia and North
Carolina, could potentially trend redder, while two swing
states, Wisconsin and Nevada, could shift bluer
SANTA
CLARA, Calif., Oct. 15,
2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Ahead of the presidential
election in November, Realtor.com® released a new
report today, which used proprietary data on geographic home
shopping trends and county-level 2020 election results to try to
predict how population shifts could reshape the political
landscape. As we look towards this presidential election, not only
do shifting opinions on key topics like home prices, and housing
affordability for both homeowners and renters have the possibility
to impact the outcome of the election, the movement of people from
state to state could potentially play a role in the 2024
presidential election.
"The influence of migration on election outcomes is a compelling
topic of discussion, sparking interest in how shifting populations
might reshape the political landscape, " said Danielle Hale, Chief Economist,
Realtor.com®. "As more people move across state lines,
their voting habits could have the potential to sway election
outcomes, especially in crucial swing states, where even small
changes in the electorate can tip the scales. This dynamic raises
important questions about how migration trends could influence the
future of American politics this year and beyond."
This analysis highlights migration-informed possibilities that
may factor alongside voter preferences on key issues to influence
the Presidential election in 2024. Because neither people nor
opinions are fixed, the U.S. electoral map is constantly changing.
In the report, if a state receives a higher traffic influx from
shoppers predicted to be red than from shoppers predicted to be
blue and has a higher retention rate of local home shoppers
predicted to be red compared to those predicted to be blue, the
state is anticipated to trend redder in the 2024 election.
Conversely, if a state draws more influx traffic that is predicted
to be blue than influx traffic that is predicted to be red and has
a higher retention rate among local home shoppers who are predicted
to be blue, the state is anticipated to become bluer in the 2024
election. (See full methodology for how a shopper's political
affiliation is predicted).
The new report found the following possibilities for the 2024
Presidential election:
- Four blue states—Connecticut, Delaware, District
of Columbia, Maine—could trend bluer
- Seven blue states—California, Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota, New
York, Oregon and
Washington— could trend redder
- Three red states—Alaska, Florida and Ohio— could shift bluer
- Twelve red states—Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Nebraska, North
Dakota, South Carolina,
South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah
and Wyoming— could trend redder
- Three swing states—Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina— could trend
redder
- Two swing states—Wisconsin and Nevada— could shift bluer
- Two swing states–Michigan and Pennsylvania–have mixed
population shifts that do not suggest a clear direction–red or
blue–for the local electorate
Out of State Migration Preferences
When a state receives a higher influx of blue shoppers compared
to red shoppers, it is a more appealing out-of-state destination
for blue buyers, and vice versa. New
Jersey, with the largest difference of 1.4 percentage
points between blue and red influx rates, attracts more blue
shoppers, while Tennessee with a
difference of 0.5 percentage points, is the most favored
destination for out-of-state red buyers.
Florida (12.9%), Texas (5.8%) and North Carolina (5.1%) rank among the top
destinations for blue home shoppers.
Florida (12.8%), Texas (5.8%) and North Carolina (5.3%) also rank among the top
destinations for red home buyers. Interestingly, both blue and red
out-of-state home shoppers showed great interest in homes in the
South, probably driven by the relatively affordable housing markets
and warmer climate.
Where do blue and red home shoppers remain?
A
desirable location for potential home buyers is not only defined by
its ability to attract new migrants, but also by the willingness of
current residents to stay. To estimate the retention rate for
in-state blue and red home buyers for each state, the analysis
calculates the proportion of in-state blue and red home buyers who
choose to shop homes within their own state. New Mexico retains the most in-state blue
shoppers when compared to the rate of red shoppers, and
New York retains the most in-state
red home shoppers.
Methodology:
To analyze the shifting interests
and patterns of U.S. home shoppers, this research utilizes online
home shopping traffic data from
Realtor.com spanning January
2021 to September 2024. To
further explore moving interests by political affiliation, we
examine county-level results from the 2020 presidential
election. We determine the likelihood of each
online view being associated with a blue, red, or independent
shopper based on the proportion of votes each party received in the
2020 presidential election.
For instance, if 60% of voters in a county were Democrats, we
would estimate that 60% of online traffic from that county comes
from blue shoppers. This approach simplifies the analysis by
assuming that the political affiliations of online home shoppers
mirror the voter distribution in their respective counties.
However, we do not consider other factors such as income, age, or
housing preferences that may also influence online home shopping
behavior.
About
Realtor.com®
Realtor.com® is an
open real estate marketplace built for everyone.
Realtor.com® pioneered the world of digital real
estate more than 25 years ago. Today, through its website and
mobile apps, Realtor.com® is a trusted guide for
consumers, empowering more people to find their way home by
breaking down barriers, helping them make the right connections,
and creating confidence through expert insights and guidance. For
professionals, Realtor.com® is a trusted partner
for business growth, offering consumer connections and branding
solutions that help them succeed in today's on-demand world.
Realtor.com® is operated by News Corp [Nasdaq:
NWS, NWSA] [ASX: NWS, NWSLV] subsidiary Move, Inc. For more
information, visit Realtor.com®.
Media Contact
Mallory
Micetich, press@realtor.com
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