There is a food fight brewing in grocery store aisles, with
supermarket chains turning up the heat on suppliers to lower
wholesale prices and food companies digging in to hold on to their
recent price hikes.
Chief executives from Supervalu Inc. (SVU) and A&P operator
Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Co. (GAP) both recently predicted
a tense first-half to 2009 as they engage their suppliers in
negotiations about lowering prices, which the retailers hope will
give their own sales a lift.
Before getting their suppliers to acquiesce to lowering
wholesale prices, retail executives expect suppliers first to pump
up their trade spending and introduce more coupons, two-for-one
deals and other discounts in grocery aisles, hoping they can keep
their prices intact as long as possible.
The negotiations highlight how retailers are looking to their
vendors for help in getting lower prices for their customers, who
have less money to spend amid a deepening economic crisis and
growing unemployment.
When food companies raised prices as energy and ingredient costs
spiked, "many retailers couldn't pass it all on," said Marty
Weintraub, a supermarket specialist at the retail consultancy
Karabus Management Inc. "Now, many grocers are thinking it's
payback time."
Many food manufacturers aren't at the point where they need to
cut prices just yet, as demand for their products has remained
fairly robust despite the higher pricing, says Ed Roesch, an
analyst at Soleil Securities, partly due to consumers shifting
their food dollars to supermarkets from restaurants.
"We are still at the stage where weaker restaurant traffic is
still on the branded manufacturers' side," Roesch said.
But grocers like Supervalu and Safeway Inc. (SWY) are looking to
move away from promotional pricing and offer lower everyday prices
to improve their price perception and to better compete with
low-cost food retailers like Kroger Co. (KR) and Wal-Mart Stores
Inc. (WMT). The gridlock over lower prices could slow plans by
those grocers to realize their new strategies, analysts say.
"Grocery stores would like to get lower wholesale prices so they
can sell lower at retail because they aren't competitive with
Wal-Mart," said independent supermarket consultant David J.
Livingston. "The bottom line is how do you get more money out of
the vendors."
More trade spending could be a temporary way to bring down some
prices, and one that vendors may prefer since it guarantees that
the cuts would trickle down to the consumer rather than pad
retailer margins.
"Taking a price reduction is a dicey proposition because the
retailer may not pass on all of it," said Paul Crnkovich, managing
director at marketing consultancy Cannondale Associates.
It's also a preferable way to regulate prices in case volatile
commodity prices, which have eased in recent months, move up once
again. "It's much easier to promote heavy, to turn that spigot on
and off, than move the list price," Scott Mushkin, supermarket
analyst at Jefferies & Co., said.
In the meantime, grocers are getting some pricing relief from
their suppliers in certain categories, particularly ones where the
branded products have become commoditized or where store-brand
products have a strong presence.
Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT) cut some prices late last year for cheese
products, which face tough private-label competition. Clorox Co.
(CLX) recently rolled back a price hike for its Glad trash
bags.
"We made the decision on Glad given the high level of
private-label shares and competitiveness of this category," said
Clorox spokesman Dan Staublin in an email. Still, most consumer and
food manufacturers haven't made moves to cut prices. Clorox, for
instance, said it had no plans for broad-based price decreases.
On the flip side, some manufacturers with strong brands have
managed to continue to push through price increases, even in the
current environment. Kellogg Co. (K), for instance, recently raised
prices for several products. Kellogg spokeswoman Susanne Norwitz
said via email that discussions with the company's retail partners
are confidential.
"The price adjustments are necessary due to increased commodity
costs for ingredients and energy used in the manufacturing and
distribution of these products," Norwitz said, adding that despite
the recent drop, commodity prices are still well above historical
averages.
But as the economic downturn draws out and consumers continue to
feel pinched, food makers that hold on to their higher prices may
lose more of the market share to private-label products, even in
some categories like cereal, where market share for brand-name
products remains strong.
Supervalu CEO Jeff Noddle is eyeing the back half of 2009 as a
time when food makers may have to relent on their prices. "I think
they're going to be forced initially into more trade spending and
then ultimately bringing prices down," Noddle said in a recent
earnings conference call.
Meanwhile, retail executives are hoping that any lingering
pressure food makers experienced from high commodity costs will
also winnow in the second half of the year, forcing higher trade
spending to give way to lower wholesale costs.
"There's only so long that a vendor can claim that there are
inflationary pressures in their cost structure," said Karen Short,
food retail analyst at FBR Capital Markets.
-By Anjali Cordeiro, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2408;
anjali.cordeiro@dowjones.com
-By Paul Ziobro, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2046;
paul.ziobro@dowjones.com
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