According to traditional finance theories—investors demand a
higher rate of return for taking greater risks but some of recent
empirical studies show that the lower risk stocks have rewarded the
investors with higher return than the broader markets over
longer-term.
This “low risk anomaly” may be due to “mispricing” of risk by
the market or in simple words, it may be a result of too many
investors chasing higher risk stocks in anticipation of higher
returns and in turn paying too much for such stocks. (Read: 3
Excellent ETFs for Income Investors)
Though the low-volatility concept is relatively new in the ETF
universe, it has become extremely popular of late. Low-volatility
ETFs pick stocks based on their historical price volatility.
S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV) was the first product in
this space and is so far the most popular, with more than $3.4
billion in assets. It is one of the most successful launches in ETF
history.
A series of new low-volatility or minimum volatility ETFs have
been launched after SPLV to capitalize on soaring investor interest
in this strategy. Four new products were launched this month,
expanding the line-up to 12 products in the US. Investors seeking
to ride out frequent bouts of volatility in the markets have
continued to pour money into these funds.
We have little historical data available for these ETFs but they
have outperformed their broader market counterparts since
inception. These ETFs effectively protected the downside during
market turmoil but they underperformed when the trend was strongly
bullish. (Read: Best ETF Strategies for 2013)
For longer-term performance, we looked at the historical data
for the indexes that these ETFs track. The table shows annualized
returns and standard deviations calculated using monthly index
return data for the past five years for the low-volatility indexes
and the respective regular indexes.
|
Index (ETF)
|
Annualized Return (5 Y)
|
Annualized Std.Dev. (5 Y)
|
U.S.
|
S&P 500 Low Volatility Index TR (SPLV)
|
12.60%
|
19.03%
|
S&P 500 TR Index
|
6.47%
|
9.45%
|
All-World
|
MSCI All Country World Minimum Volatility Index (ACWV)
|
2.22%
|
15.80%
|
MSCI All Country World Index
|
1.92%
|
23.65%
|
Emerging Markets
|
MSCI Emerging Market Minimum Volatility Index
(EEMV)
|
6.76%
|
22.32%
|
MSCI Emerging Markets Index
|
2.35%
|
28.47%
|
The results (the table above and the follwoing charts) show that
the low volatility strategies handily beat the broader markets with
significantly less volatility, in the U.S., international and
emerging stock markets in the last five years.
While it is true that the markets were in general more volatile
during the past five years, we can reasonably expect that going
forward the level of volatility in the markets will stay at
elevated levels at least in the foreseeable future.
Academic studies suggest that market volatility over extended
periods of time is driven by macroeconomic environment. Given
extraordinary global macroeconomic conditions and unconventional
monetary tools employed by the central banks all over the world,
market volatility will continue to be high. (Read: Treasury Bond
ETFs-Still Room to run)
Further, per S&P Indices, backtesting of the index over past
20 years revealed that:
· S&P 500 Low
Volatility Index was less volatile than the parent S&P 500--24%
volatility reduction over 20 years and 32% volatility reduction
over most recent 10 years.
· Lower volatility
did not mean lower returns as S&P 500 Low Volatility Index
outperformed the S&P 500 for the 20 year period and in 9 of the
20 years between 1991 and 2010.
Another study analyzed the stock returns from 1968 through 2008
and found similar results.
Based on the above, I think that we can safely infer that
low-volatility stocks and ETFs are very attractive investments for
longer-term investors who focus on risk-adjusted returns.
PowerShares S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF
(SPLV)
SPLV tracks the S&P 500 Low Volatility Index, which consists
of 100 stocks from the S&P 500 Index with the lowest realized
volatility over the past 12 months.
ETF currently has an attractive 12-month yield of 2.83%, while
it charges an expense ratio of 0.25% per year.
The ETF holds 100 securities currently, mostly from the Consumer
Staples (24%), Utilities (31%) and Financials (15%) sectors. The
ETF has returned 7.53% year-to-date. It is a Zacks #1 (Strong Buy)
ETF.
iShares MSCI All Country World Minimum Volatility Index
Fund (ACWV)
ACWV is ideal for investors looking for low-volatility product
with global exposure. It tracks MSCI All Country World Minimum
Volatility Index, which is a capitalization weighted index of
securities in the developed and emerging economies that have lower
absolute volatility. The weight of the stocks in the index is
determined by a rules based methodology.
The ETF holds 264 securities which are mainly from the Consumer
Staples (15%), Healthcare (15%) and Financials (16%) sectors.
ACWV has an expense ratio of 0.35% and a 12-month yield of 1.83%
currently. The fund invests about 51% of its assets in US
securities while Japan (12%) and Canada (8%) occupy the next two
spots in terms of country exposure.
The fundt has returned 6.76% year-to-date.
iShares MSCI Emerging Market Minimum Volatility Index
(EEMV)
EEMV is an ideal choice for the investors looking to participate
in the emerging markets growth while limiting their portfolio
volatility.
The ETF holds 213 securities from the Financials (27%), Consumer
Staples (13%) and Telecom (12%) sectors. Taiwan (16%). China (14%)
and South Korea (10%) are the top countries in terms of
exposure.
The fund charges a low expense ratio of 25 basis points while
the 12-month is 1.64%. It is a Zacks #2 (Buy) ETF.
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