UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington, D.C. 20549
_________________
FORM 6-K
REPORT OF FOREIGN PRIVATE
 
ISSUER
PURSUANT TO RULE 13a-16 OR 15d-16 UNDER
THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934
Date: February 5, 2025
UBS Group AG
(Registrant's Name)
Bahnhofstrasse 45, 8001 Zurich, Switzerland
(Address of principal executive office)
Commission File Number: 1-36764
UBS AG
(Registrant's Name)
Bahnhofstrasse 45, 8001 Zurich, Switzerland
Aeschenvorstadt 1, 4051 Basel, Switzerland
 
(Address of principal executive offices)
Commission File Number: 1-15060
 
Indicate by check mark whether the registrants file or will file annual
 
reports under cover of Form
20-F or Form 40-
F.
Form 20-F
 
 
Form 40-F
 
This Form 6-K consists of the transcripts of the 4Q24 Earnings call remarks
 
and Analyst Q&A, which
appear immediately following this page.
 
1
Fourth quarter 2024 results
 
4 February 2025
Speeches
 
by
Sergio
 
P.
 
Ermotti
,
 
Group
 
Chief
 
Executive
 
Officer,
 
and
Todd
 
Tuckner
,
Group Chief Financial
 
Officer
Including analyst
 
Q&A session
Transcript.
Numbers for
 
slides refer
 
to the
 
fourth quarter 2024
 
results presentation. Materials
 
and a
 
webcast
replay are available at
www.ubs.com/investors
Sergio P.
 
Ermotti
Slide 3 – Key messages
 
Thank you, Sarah and good morning,
 
everyone.
 
Before we provide
 
an update on
 
how we are
 
delivering on our
 
priorities to meet our
 
2026 commitments, let me
share some highlights for 2024.
Strong fourth-quarter
 
results contributed
 
to even
 
stronger full-year financial
 
performance, as
 
we rebuilt profitability
across our businesses. Our full-year net profit
 
of 5.1 billion and underlying return on CET1 capital of
 
8.7% reflect
our unwavering commitment
 
to serving our clients,
 
our diversified global franchise
 
and the disciplined
 
progress we
have made on our integration plans.
 
Throughout
 
2024, we
 
maintained robust
 
momentum as
 
we captured
 
growth across
 
our
 
global
 
asset-gathering
platform and gained market
 
share in the Investment Bank
 
in the areas where we have
 
made strategic investments.
 
With over
 
70 billion
 
Swiss francs
 
of loans
 
granted or
 
renewed during
 
the year,
 
and outstanding
 
balance of
 
350
billion, we also maintained our
 
commitment as a reliable
 
partner for the Swiss economy,
 
supporting families and
businesses to achieve their goals.
 
We
 
delivered on
 
all of
 
our key
 
integration milestones
 
in 2024,
 
including all
 
major legal
 
entity mergers,
 
and the
successful completion
 
of our
 
client account
 
migrations in
 
Luxembourg, Hong
 
Kong, Singapore
 
and Japan
 
in the
fourth quarter.
 
This builds upon the
 
successful integration of
 
our key operating entities,
 
the optimization of
 
our balance sheet and
the
 
reduction
 
of
 
costs
 
and
 
risk-weighted
 
assets
 
in
 
Non-core
 
and
 
Legacy.
 
Combined,
 
these
 
milestones
 
have
significantly reduced the execution risk of the Credit Suisse acquisition.
 
As a result, we remain confident
 
in our ability to substantially
 
complete the integration and
 
deliver on our financial
targets by the end of 2026.
2
Our capital position remains
 
robust as we ended the
 
year with a CET1
 
capital ratio of 14.3%.
 
For the financial year
2024, we intend to propose a dividend of
 
90 cents, representing a 29% increase year-on-year.
 
This is in line with
our intention to calibrate the proportion of cash dividends
 
and share repurchases.
 
As we execute
 
on our business
 
and integration plans, we
 
are building
 
additional capacity to
 
invest in our
 
people
and to
 
enhance our
 
products and
 
capabilities. This
 
will allow
 
us to
 
better serve
 
our clients
 
and position
 
UBS for
future success.
That includes the Americas, a
 
region that remains a
 
core component of both our asset-gathering
 
foundation and
our capital-efficient business model.
 
In 2024, we started to
 
make changes across the business to introduce
 
new capabilities that will help increase the
operating leverage of our platform, improve profitability
 
and drive sustainable growth.
 
Across all of
 
our businesses and supporting functions, we continue
 
to invest in technology,
 
leveraging our strong
foundation to improve the client experience and enhance
 
how we operate.
Now, I hand over to Todd
 
who will cover the fourth-quarter results.
 
 
 
 
3
Todd
 
Tuckner
Slide 4 – Continued positive operating leverage
 
in 4Q24 on higher revenues and lower costs
Thank you Sergio, and good morning
 
everyone.
 
Throughout my remarks, I’ll refer
 
to underlying results in US dollars
 
and make year-over-year
 
comparisons, unless
stated otherwise.
For the fourth quarter,
 
profit before tax tripled to 1.8 billion. Revenue momentum in
 
our core franchises and cost
synergies across the Group
 
drove a 12-point
 
improvement in operating leverage. Our
 
EPS for the quarter
 
was 23
cents with a 7.2% underlying return on CET1 capital.
 
Our underlying cost-income ratio was 82%.
Slide 5 – 4Q24 net profit at 0.8bn, with integration
 
continuing at pace
Looking at
 
the drivers
 
of our
 
fourth quarter
 
Group performance
 
on slide 5.
 
Total revenues rose by 6%
 
to 11
 
billion,
driven mainly by strong top-line growth in Global Wealth Management
 
and the Investment Bank, powered by our
capabilities and advice in supportive market
 
conditions.
Operating expenses declined by 6% year-over-year
 
to 9.1 billion, and were
 
1% lower sequentially as progress
 
on
synergies and
 
a
 
stronger
 
US
 
dollar
 
more
 
than
 
offset
 
the
 
expected
 
4Q
 
tick-up in
 
non-personnel expenses.
 
This
achievement was supported by
 
a lower overall
 
employee count, which fell
 
sequentially by another 2%,
 
to below
129 thousand.
 
The total staff count is down 27 thousand, or 17%,
 
from our 2022 baseline.
Excluding litigation, variable compensation and
 
currency effects, operating
 
expenses decreased by 9%
 
year-over-
year.
 
The 4% quarter-over-quarter increase was caused
 
by seasonally higher charges, including the UK bank levy
and increased marketing expenditures.
 
Our reported profit before tax for the
 
quarter included 0.7 billion
 
of revenue adjustments relating to
 
PPA effects, a
remeasurement loss of 0.1 billion on
 
an investment in an
 
associate, and 1.3 billion
 
of integration-related expenses.
 
Reported net profit was 0.8 billion in the
 
quarter on an effective tax rate of
 
26%.
 
We expect a similar tax rate in
the first quarter.
 
Slide 6 – Global Wealth Management
Turning to our business divisions, and starting with Global Wealth Management on
 
slide 6.
GWM’s pre
 
-tax profit
 
was 1.1
 
billion, an
 
increase
 
of over
 
80% as
 
revenues
 
grew
 
by
 
10%.
 
Excluding litigation
charges, PBT rose to 1.2 billion.
 
Net new assets reached 18 billion and net new fee-generating assets were 13 billion, fueled by sales of mandates
and separately managed accounts.
 
Flow performance this quarter reflects the maturity of over 50 billion of fixed-
term deposits associated with
 
our 2023 win-back campaign.
 
Like in previous quarters, we managed
 
to retain over
85% on our platform, including converting
 
over 20% into more profitable solutions, including mandates.
For
 
the
 
full
 
year
 
2024,
 
we
 
acquired
 
net
 
new
 
assets
 
of
 
97
 
billion,
 
representing
 
a
 
2.5%
 
growth
 
rate.
 
As
 
I’ve
highlighted in
 
the past,
 
our net
 
new asset
 
achievement this
 
year reflects
 
several challenges
 
that we
 
successfully
navigated over the course of 2024.
 
4
This includes
 
retaining
 
the vast
 
majority of
 
Credit
 
Suisse invested
 
assets despite
 
significant levels
 
of relationship
manager attrition, keeping the
 
bulk of maturing
 
fixed-term deposits as just
 
mentioned in the context
 
of 4Q, and
increasing profitability on sub-hurdle lending relationships from our balance sheet
 
optimization efforts.
 
Collectively,
 
while
 
these
 
factors
 
weighed
 
down
 
flows
 
by
 
around
 
30
 
billion,
 
importantly
 
they’ve
 
contributed
 
to
enhanced profitability and
 
returns.
 
This is evidenced by
 
the 3 percentage point
 
year-over-year increase in revenues
over RWA.
 
Recurring net fee
 
income increased
 
by 12% to
 
3.3 billion as
 
our invested assets
 
grew sequentially
 
to 4.2
 
trillion,
absorbing roughly 80
 
billion in
 
FX headwinds.
 
Client traction
 
with mandates
 
remained strong with
 
around 5 billion
in net new mandates
 
globally, mainly driven by sales of our differentiated discretionary
 
solutions and supported
 
by
continued momentum in SMAs in the US.
 
Margins held up
 
sequentially and
 
are expected to
 
remain around these
 
levels, especially as
 
recently migrated clients
and those remaining on the Credit Suisse platform now have access to the full breadth of our CIO value-chain-led
offering.
This quarter we once again
 
demonstrated the benefits of
 
combining our leading markets
 
solutions and capabilities
with our CIO’s investment calls.
 
This drove a 12% increase in
 
transaction-based revenues in an environment that
saw broad re-risking after the US elections.
Structured
 
products,
 
equities,
 
and
 
alternatives
 
all
 
recorded
 
double-digit
 
transaction
 
revenue
 
increases.
 
Our
investments in
 
capabilities, solutions,
 
and
 
unified teams
 
support the
 
durability of
 
this
 
revenue
 
line
 
and fuel
 
our
ability to capture wallet-share in all climates.
Year-on-year
 
transaction revenue growth was led by APAC and the Americas, up by 30% and 13%, respectively.
 
Net interest
 
income at
 
1.7 billion
 
was up
 
4% sequentially,
 
reflecting improvements
 
in both
 
lending and
 
deposit
margins.
 
While fixed
 
term deposit
 
balances decreased
 
in the
 
quarter,
 
we saw
 
inflows into
 
sweeps and
 
current
accounts across our platform as our clients increased transactional
 
balances in a constructive trading environment.
 
I would note
 
that the planned sweep
 
deposit pricing changes I
 
mentioned previously went into
 
effect for our
 
US
advisory accounts in early December.
 
Our 2025 outlook as a result of introducing these rate adjustments remains
unchanged.
Turning to
 
our NII outlook for GWM.
 
Since I offered an initial view on 2025 last quarter,
 
we’ve seen a significant
divergence in
 
rates expectations
 
between the
 
US dollar,
 
on the
 
one hand,
 
and the
 
Swiss franc
 
and Euro
 
on the
other.
 
This distinction
 
is important
 
for GWM.
 
While our
 
US business
 
is effectively
 
operated entirely
 
in US
 
dollars, in
 
GWM’s
businesses
 
outside
 
the
 
US,
 
half
 
of
 
all
 
deposits,
 
and
 
the
 
majority
 
of
 
loans
 
and
 
low-beta
 
transactional
 
account
balances, are denominated in currencies other than the
 
US dollar.
 
Looking at
 
the rates
 
outlook, the
 
Federal Reserve
 
is now
 
expected to
 
cut US
 
dollar rates
 
more gradually.
 
Meanwhile,
both the Swiss and the European central banks are expected to
 
continue to more actively cut.
Based on this, in the first
 
quarter, we expect to see headwinds from lower rates, particularly
 
in the Swiss franc and
Euro, and lower balances from deployment
 
of sweep and transactional account
 
balances, partially offset by higher
margins from balance sheet optimization.
 
Combined with a lower day count effect, this is expected to result
 
in a
low-to-mid single-digit-percentage sequential decrease
 
in GWM’s NII.
 
 
5
Looking further out,
 
lower Swiss franc and
 
Euro rates will
 
remain a headwind
 
to deposit margins,
 
partially offset
by the
 
benefits of
 
continued balance
 
sheet optimization,
 
particularly on
 
the deposit
 
side. Net
 
new loan
 
growth
should also
 
help. I
 
should note
 
that if
 
we do
 
see a
 
more hawkish
 
US dollar rates
 
policy,
 
while helpful to
 
deposit
margins, this is likely to moderate the extent
 
of re-leveraging, particularly in Lombard lending.
 
For full
 
year 2025
 
compared to
 
2024, we
 
expect a
 
low single
 
digit percentage
 
decrease in
 
NII, inflecting
 
by 2Q,
with the second half of the year broadly flat versus
 
2H24.
Underlying operating
 
expenses were
 
unchanged from
 
last year
 
at 4.8
 
billion, with
 
lower personnel
 
and support
costs offset by higher variable compensation tied to revenues
 
and increased litigation provisions.
 
To
 
offer a look-
through comparison, excluding litigation,
 
variable compensation, FX,
 
and last year’s FDIC special
 
assessment, costs
were down 5% year-over-year.
Slide 7 – Personal & Corporate Banking (CHF)
Turning to Personal and Corporate Banking on slide 7.
P&C delivered fourth
 
quarter pre-tax profit
 
of 572 million
 
Swiss francs, down
 
18%, primarily from
 
lower interest
rates affecting net interest income, down 8%, and elevated
 
credit loss expense.
 
Recurring
 
net fee
 
income increased
 
by
 
8%
 
driven by
 
higher
 
volumes of
 
investment products
 
and
 
gross
 
margin
expansion.
 
Transaction-based revenues were up 13%, also on higher client activity.
 
Sequentially, NII decreased slightly by 1%.
 
We offset some of the effects of the
 
SNB’s third 25-basis point rate
 
cut
from
 
late
 
September by
 
moderately decreasing
 
deposit
 
rates
 
and
 
pricing
 
loans to
 
appropriately
 
reflect
 
risk
 
and
capital costs.
 
After the 50
 
basis point cut
 
by the
 
SNB in
 
December there is
 
a reasonable
 
likelihood that we’ll
 
see interest rates
drop to zero by mid-2025.
 
The
 
impact
 
of
 
near-zero
 
rates
 
will
 
drive
 
down
 
deposit
 
margins
 
both
 
sequentially
 
and
 
for
 
the
 
full
 
year
 
2025.
 
Additional headwinds in
 
1Q are
 
expected from
 
the sequential
 
day count
 
effect and
 
lower rates
 
in US
 
dollar and
Euro affecting deposit margins on transactional accounts.
 
Hence, for P&C’s Swiss
 
franc NII, we currently expect
 
a roughly 10% sequential decline
 
in the first quarter.
 
For full
year 2025, the drop
 
will be somewhat more
 
pronounced versus 2024, with
 
NII expected to trough
 
in the second
quarter and plateau thereafter.
 
From
 
there,
 
any
 
move in
 
interest
 
rates, whether
 
negative or
 
positive, should
 
be constructive
 
to our
 
NII
 
and net
interest margin in P&C.
 
Credit loss expense was 155 million Swiss francs, a 25-basis point cost of risk on an average loan portfolio of 243
billion.
 
The quarterly result was driven by Stage 3 charges, predominantly from new-venture financings and loans
to corporates
 
in the
 
metals and
 
automotive industries, which
 
have shown
 
financial vulnerability in
 
a challenging
market environment across Europe.
These
 
exposures, by
 
and large,
 
are
 
on
 
the Credit
 
Suisse platform,
 
reflecting lending
 
practices and
 
underwriting
standards from the pre-acquisition period.
 
We expect CLE to remain elevated at around 350 million Swiss francs in 2025 as we continue to
 
build allowances
for pre-acquisition Credit Suisse
 
portfolios, with many
 
exposures still having more
 
than a year until
 
maturity.
 
In the
first quarter, we may see lower CLE versus the implied quarterly average due to seasonal
 
factors.
 
 
 
 
6
Operating
 
expenses
 
in
 
P&C
 
were
 
1.1
 
billion
 
Swiss
 
francs,
 
up
 
2%,
 
and
 
flat
 
sequentially,
 
as
 
the
 
business
 
offset
increased
 
investments
 
in
 
building
 
up
 
support
 
functions
 
related
 
to
 
its
 
larger
 
footprint
 
through
 
cost
 
reduction
initiatives and synergy realization.
 
Slide 8 – Asset Management
Moving to Asset Management, on slide 8.
 
Pre-tax profit increased by 20% to 224 million as strong cost discipline
more than offset lower revenues.
 
Overall revenues were down 7%, or 6% excluding gains
 
on asset sales.
 
Net management fees
 
declined by 5%,
 
mainly from
 
continuing shifts out
 
of active equities
 
compressing top-line
margins.
 
Performance fees were
 
44 million,
 
compared to
 
52 million in
 
the prior year
 
quarter,
 
with improvement in
 
hedge
fund solutions more than offset by decreases across other products, including Fixed
 
Income funds.
Net new money in the quarter was positive 33 billion, led by
 
a large institutional inflow in passive Equities and net
flows into money market funds.
 
For the full-year 2024,
 
net new money was 45
 
billion, a strong result
 
in light of
flow dis-synergies we were expecting from integrating
 
Credit Suisse Asset Management.
 
Operating expenses were 15% lower, both year-over-year and sequentially, as the business is demonstrating
 
good
progress in transforming its operating model and driving
 
cost saves.
Slide 9 – Investment Bank
On to slide
 
9 and the
 
Investment Bank.
 
Pre-tax profit of
 
452 million was
 
driven by strong
 
revenue performance,
up 37% year-on-year.
Banking revenues increased by
 
19% to 675 million,
 
with advisory,
 
up 36%, and LCM,
 
which more than doubled
its revenues, the main drivers of growth.
 
Regionally, we saw particular strength in the Americas, up 33%.
Markets
 
revenues
 
increased
 
by
 
44%
 
to
 
1.9
 
billion
 
with
 
increased
 
client
 
activity
 
on
 
higher
 
cash
 
volumes
 
and
supportive volatility
 
across equities
 
and FX.
 
This led
 
to our
 
best fourth
 
quarter Markets
 
revenue on
 
record with
particular strength in financing supported by all-time-high
 
client balances.
 
For Markets, regional
 
revenues in
 
the Americas and
 
APAC
 
surged by around
 
50%, and grew
 
by about a
 
third in
EMEA, driven by broad-based increases across both equities and
 
FRC.
Operating expenses were down 4% on lower personnel
 
costs.
Slide 10 – Non-core and Legacy
On slide 10,
 
Non-core and Legacy’s
 
pre-tax loss in
 
the quarter
 
was 606 million.
 
Revenues were negative
 
58 million,
mainly reflecting funding
 
costs that, unlike in
 
prior quarters, were
 
not offset by
 
gains on exits
 
or the carry
 
in our
now much smaller credit
 
book.
 
Operating expenses were down
 
by nearly 50% year-on-year
 
and 5% sequentially,
 
as we continue to
 
make good
progress in driving out costs.
 
NCL risk-weighted assets were
 
41 billion, down 3
 
billion sequentially,
 
mainly from position
 
exits.
 
LRD was down
15 billion, or 22% quarter-on-quarter.
 
 
7
Slide 11 – A balance sheet for all seasons as a
 
key pillar of our strategy
Turning
 
to our
 
capital and
 
balance sheet
 
position on
 
slide 11.
 
As of
 
the end
 
of the
 
fourth quarter,
 
our balance
sheet for all seasons consisted
 
of 1.6 trillion in total
 
assets, including around 600
 
billion in end-of-period loans
 
and
750 billion in end-of-period deposits.
 
Our loan portfolio reflected credit-impaired exposures of 1%, up sequentially by 4 basis points.
 
The cost of risk in
the quarter increased to 15 basis points, as credit loss expense
 
in our Swiss business drove this measure higher.
We ended the year with a sequentially unchanged CET1 capital
 
ratio of 14.3%, as a decline in CET1 capital of 2.8
billion was
 
offset by
 
a proportionate
 
decrease in
 
risk weighted
 
assets of
 
21 billion.
 
CET1 capital
 
was mainly
 
affected
by
 
the stronger
 
US dollar
 
as well
 
as by
 
higher cash
 
taxes and
 
dividend accruals,
 
more
 
than
 
offsetting quarterly
profits.
 
RWA likewise was lower on currency effects as well as asset size reductions, mainly
 
in the IB and NCL.
Slide 12 – Strong execution in 2024, delivering ahead
 
of plan
To
 
summarize, our
 
fourth quarter
 
performance caps
 
off a
 
strong 2024
 
in which
 
our Non-core
 
and Legacy
 
team
successfully ran
 
down balance
 
sheet and
 
costs and
 
our core
 
franchises demonstrated
 
strength and
 
scale in
 
delivering
for our clients, even while absorbing substantial
 
costs associated with the integration.
 
With that, I hand back to Sergio
 
for the investor update.
 
 
 
8
Sergio P.
 
Ermotti
Slide 14: Executing on our proven strategy to deliver
 
for all stakeholders
Thank you, Todd.
 
For over
 
a decade,
 
UBS has
 
been a
 
source of
 
strength and
 
stability for
 
all of
 
our stakeholders
 
thanks to
 
the consistent
execution of our capital-generative strategy
 
and a commitment to maintaining a balance
 
sheet for all seasons.
 
Our global capabilities
 
empower strong
 
collaboration across
 
our businesses
 
to deliver
 
the best of
 
UBS to our
 
clients,
and our disciplined focus
 
on risk and efficiency is at
 
the forefront of our culture. This is why
 
our clients continue to
extend
 
their
 
trust
 
and
 
confidence
 
in
 
UBS,
 
and
 
our
 
employees
 
are
 
proud
 
to
 
work
 
here.
 
It
 
is
 
how
 
we
 
generate
significant value
 
for our
 
shareholders while
 
remaining a
 
consistent and
 
reliable economic
 
partner in
 
the communities
where we
 
operate. And
 
it has
 
also allowed
 
us to
 
be a
 
source of
 
financial stability for
 
Switzerland and
 
the wider
financial system in March of 2023.
The same
 
principles guide
 
us as
 
we build
 
an even
 
stronger,
 
safer and
 
more
 
efficient firm,
 
and position
 
UBS for
sustainably higher returns and long-term growth.
Slide 15: Unique globally diversified model focused
 
on asset gathering businesses
Our unique business
 
model, with our
 
asset gathering businesses
 
generating around 60%
 
of our revenues, provides
us with an attractive risk and return profile that continues
 
to stand out among our global peers.
 
We are the largest truly global wealth manager, and the leading universal bank in Switzerland.
These
 
two
 
key
 
pillars
 
of
 
our
 
strategy
 
are
 
enhanced
 
by
 
a
 
portfolio
 
of
 
best-in-class
 
capabilities
 
across
 
Asset
Management and our competitive, but capital-light
 
Investment Bank.
With leading
 
franchises in the
 
world’s largest and
 
fastest-growing markets,
 
our regional diversification
 
is a strategic
advantage and also provides us unique value for
 
both our clients and investors.
 
Slide 16: On track to substantially complete
 
the integration by the end of 2026
 
Turning to the integration.
 
As I
 
highlighted earlier,
 
we are
 
on track
 
with our
 
plans thanks
 
to the
 
successful delivery of
 
our key
 
objectives in
2024, having completed over 4,000 milestones
 
during the year.
 
Following
 
the
 
merger
 
of
 
our
 
Parent
 
Banks,
 
we
 
have
 
now
 
migrated
 
over
 
90%
 
of
 
client
 
accounts
 
outside
 
of
Switzerland onto UBS platforms.
 
In addition, the integration
 
of the Investment Bank
 
is now complete, and
 
in Asset
Management, we
 
made good
 
progress migrating
 
portfolios onto
 
our infrastructure
 
and rationalizing
 
our fund
 
shelf.
 
We also
 
continue to
 
follow our technology
 
decommissioning roadmap. To
 
date, we
 
have removed
 
over 40%
 
of
Non-core
 
and
 
Legacy’s
 
applications, worked
 
through
 
16
 
petabytes
 
of
 
data
 
and
 
reduced
 
the
 
number
 
of
 
legacy
servers by over 40%.
 
 
 
9
Thanks to
 
our restructuring
 
efforts and
 
the active
 
wind-down
 
of NCL,
 
we have
 
captured almost
 
60% of
 
our targeted
13 billion gross cost savings.
 
We will look to maintain this
 
momentum in 2025 as
 
our focus shifts to migrating
 
the majority of client accounts
 
in
Switzerland, and decommissioning over twelve
 
hundred Credit Suisse models and applications.
 
We
 
have
 
always
 
said
 
that
 
our
 
progress
 
on
 
the
 
integration
 
of
 
Credit
 
Suisse
 
will
 
not
 
be
 
a
 
straight
 
line.
 
Our
performance in
 
2025 will
 
continue to
 
reflect significant
 
restructuring work
 
necessary to
 
integrate our
 
businesses
and right-size our cost base.
Having said that, our progress to date
 
supports an incremental improvement in our returns this year compared to
our previous guidance.
 
We remain
 
confident
 
in our
 
ability to
 
substantially complete
 
the integration
 
and deliver
 
on our
 
targets and
 
ambitions
by the end of 2026. At the same time, we will continue to invest to drive sustainable growth and long-term value
beyond the integration.
 
Slide 17: Continuing to invest in technology
 
to drive business outcomes
 
Investing in technology
 
to benefit our
 
clients and empower
 
our colleagues is
 
one of the
 
key ways we
 
are preparing
for the future.
We continue to invest in our
 
best-in-class Cloud infrastructure with over
 
70% in the public and private
 
Cloud. This
is a
 
key facilitator
 
of our
 
integration progress,
 
allowing us
 
to reduce
 
complexity and
 
costs as
 
we remove
 
legacy
applications, while maintaining our compliance and
 
security standards.
 
It is also an
 
important catalyst for innovation as
 
we continue to invest
 
in tools to enhance
 
our client offering and
increase efficiency and effectiveness.
 
A good
 
example is our
 
roll-out of
 
50,000 Microsoft
 
Copilot licenses to
 
our employees in
 
the largest deployment
within the global financial services industry to
 
date.
 
We are also seeing
 
strong benefits from
 
our proprietary generative
 
A.I. solutions.
 
One example is
 
in the U.S.,
 
where
our
 
advanced
 
analytics
 
platform
 
supported
 
our
 
financial
 
advisors
 
with
 
over
 
13
 
million
 
automated
 
insights
 
and
actionable opportunities. Solutions like this improve productivity and our ability to deliver tailored solutions to our
clients.
 
Slide 18: On track to deliver on our cost
 
and profitability ambitions in our core businesses
We are
 
on track to deliver
 
on our 2026
 
exit rate ambitions across
 
our core businesses. While
 
we are encouraged
by our progress to date, this slide also reflects the significant work
 
that lies ahead to achieve our objectives.
 
In GWM, we remain focused on
 
leveraging our enhanced capabilities
 
and solutions to maintain client
 
momentum.
At the same time,
 
we aim to
 
capture the benefits
 
of integration-related synergies
 
and improve advisor
 
productivity.
 
With
 
the
 
client
 
account
 
migrations
 
achieved
 
in
 
APAC,
 
we
 
are
 
even
 
better
 
placed
 
to
 
leverage
 
our
 
number-one
position in the region to drive market-leading growth.
 
 
10
In the Americas,
 
we are making targeted
 
investments to deepen
 
relationships with our
 
ultra-high net worth
 
clients,
accelerate growth in the high net worth and core affluent segments
 
and expand our loan and deposit offering.
 
These growth initiatives
 
will be supported
 
by actions we have
 
already taken to
 
enhance our technology offering,
simplify our organizational structure and improve execution.
 
I am
 
confident in
 
our ability
 
to deliver
 
mid-teen PBT
 
margins as
 
we exit
 
2026. Then,
 
the business
 
will be
 
better
positioned to further expand profit margins and
 
capture long-term growth. Todd
 
will take you through our
 
plans
in more detail.
In P&C, as we have said
 
previously, declining Swiss franc rates are expected to continue
 
to affect revenues. We are
still de-facto operating two separate banks, including branches, staff, and technology,
 
but we are well positioned
to start delivering cost synergies later this year
 
and into 2026 as we unite those platforms.
Unfortunately, as we
 
reported previously, this will
 
lead to
 
certain role
 
reductions in
 
Switzerland. We
 
plan to
 
mitigate
the impact of these as much as possible through natural
 
attrition, early retirement and other measures.
 
For those impacted
 
we will provide proactive
 
support in helping
 
to find a new
 
job, and a
 
comprehensive social plan
that combines
 
the strongest
 
components of
 
the prior
 
UBS and
 
Credit Suisse
 
plans. I
 
am also
 
especially proud
 
of
efforts to
 
prioritize the
 
hiring of
 
internal candidates: over
 
two-thirds of
 
open positions in
 
Switzerland were
 
filled
this way in 2024.
In Asset Management, we remain focused on continuing to capture opportunities where we have a differentiated
and scalable offering.
 
This includes our newly launched Unified
 
Global Alternatives unit, which makes
 
us the fifth-largest Limited Partner
in
 
Alternatives
 
with
 
promising
 
growth
 
prospects.
 
At
 
the
 
same
 
time,
 
we
 
will
 
remain
 
focused
 
on
 
realizing
 
cost
synergies and structural efficiencies to create capacity
 
for investments and improve profitability.
In the Investment
 
Bank, I am
 
encouraged by
 
the progress our
 
fully integrated
 
teams are making
 
to deliver
 
for clients
as we seize market share gains in our areas of strategic
 
importance.
 
As
 
we
 
continue
 
to
 
deploy
 
our
 
products
 
and
 
services
 
across
 
our
 
broader
 
institutional
 
client
 
base
 
and
 
increase
connectivity to GWM
 
and P&C to
 
deliver on our
 
return ambitions, we
 
will maintain our
 
well-established risk and
capital discipline.
 
Slide 19: Well placed to balance resiliency, growth and attractive capital returns
 
 
Turning to capital.
 
We
 
continue
 
to
 
target
 
a
 
CET1
 
capital
 
ratio
 
of
 
around
 
14%.
 
At
 
this
 
level,
 
we
 
will
 
be
 
able
 
to
 
go
 
through
 
the
integration period and beyond with a strong capital buffer relative to minimum requirements. This will allow
 
us to
remain a source of stability while we self-fund growth and deliver attractive
 
capital returns to our shareholders.
 
For the 2025 financial year,
 
we plan to accrue for an increase in our dividend of around
 
10 percent. We also plan
to repurchase another 1 billion dollars
 
of shares in the first half of
 
this year, and up to an additional 2 billion in the
second
 
half. As
 
in
 
the past,
 
our
 
share
 
repurchases
 
will
 
be
 
consistent with
 
delivering on
 
our
 
financial plans
 
and
maintaining our
 
CET1 capital
 
ratio target
 
of around
 
14%, and
 
assuming no
 
material, immediate
 
changes to the
current capital regime.
 
11
Our ambition for capital returns to exceed pre-acquisition
 
levels in 2026 remains unchanged.
 
Now,
 
following the
 
publication of
 
the Parliamentary
 
Investigation Commission’s
 
report
 
in December,
 
we expect
further
 
developments
 
in
 
the
 
ongoing
 
review
 
of
 
the
 
capital
 
regime
 
in
 
Switzerland.
 
Based
 
on
 
the
 
latest
 
public
communication
 
from
 
the
 
State
 
Secretariat
 
for
 
International
 
Finance,
 
the
 
public
 
consultation
 
on
 
the
 
proposal
 
is
expected to begin in May. Therefore, at this time, we are not in a position to offer any new information.
 
As we have said in
 
the past, we support the vast
 
majority of proposals from the
 
Swiss Federal Council on how to
enhance the
 
regulatory framework
 
in Switzerland.
 
In our
 
discussions with
 
Swiss authorities,
 
we continue
 
to maintain
our view that the Swiss capital regime is one
 
of the strongest when consistently and coherently applied.
 
While it is
also crystal clear that the overall quality
 
of our capital is of a much higher
 
standard than Credit Suisse’s, we accept
that some adjustments and clarifications to
 
the current regime may be necessary.
 
However, a disproportionate outcome in terms of requirements at the Parent Bank level would drive our capital at
the
 
Group
 
level
 
to
 
overshoot
 
the
 
current
 
requirements.
 
Therefore,
 
we
 
believe
 
that
 
any
 
significant
 
change
 
is
unjustified. Offsetting
 
the consequences
 
of higher
 
requirements would
 
make us
 
uncompetitive domestically and
abroad, hamper our ability to help clients grow and, importantly, make banking services more expensive for Swiss
families and enterprises in
 
the long run.
 
It will also
 
damage the nation’s standing
 
as an attractive global
 
financial
center and ultimately hurt our position as the third-largest
 
private employer in Switzerland.
 
Of course, this
 
would have an
 
impact on our
 
returns on capital.
 
But even more
 
importantly it would
 
impede our
ability to compete for capital in the
 
global marketplace, particularly in
 
a moment of financial stress. As a reminder,
our current ambitions are based on a 14% CET1 capital ratio.
I’ve been reading some recent reports.
 
So, let me be very clear.
 
There are no easy fixes
 
in terms of repatriation of
capital from foreign subsidiaries or balance sheet optimization
 
that are not already included in our plans.
 
Therefore, while I
 
am extremely confident in our
 
capital generation capacity under any outcome, our shareholder
returns and returns on capital would be affected.
 
Todd
 
will provide more detail later.
We want to continue to be a source of strength for our clients,
 
employees, shareholders and Switzerland.
 
For that reason,
 
it is very
 
important that
 
a comprehensive cost/benefit
 
analysis on
 
the consequences
 
of any material
changes of
 
capital requirements
 
is carried
 
out. We remain
 
hopeful that
 
any potential
 
changes will
 
be proportionate,
targeted, internationally aligned and
 
coherent with the strategic objectives set out
 
by the Swiss Federal Council.
Slide 20: Rebuilding profitability and positioning for
 
sustainable growth post-integration
As I mentioned before, we have substantially de-risked
 
the integration across many dimensions.
 
This is reflected in our return profile, which has significantly
 
improved compared to a year ago.
 
Our goal is to continue to rebuild profitability in 2025 as we further progress our integration plan and
 
capture the
benefits of our enhanced scale and capabilities
 
across our businesses.
 
We remain well positioned
 
to deliver on
 
our 15% return
 
on CET1 capital
 
target by the
 
end 2026. We
 
will then look
to achieve UBS’s pre-acquisition levels of profitability and
 
deliver on our 2028 ambitions.
 
 
12
We have achieved so much over the last two years,
 
and I am proud of the immense effort of all of my
 
colleagues.
 
But there is no room for complacency, and we remain focused on serving our clients, delivering on the next phase
of the integration and fulfilling our growth initiatives
 
as we position UBS for a successful future.
 
With that, I hand back to Todd for more details on our plans.
Todd
 
Tuckner
Slide 21 – Growth in core business profitability to drive returns
Thanks
 
again,
 
Sergio.
 
I
 
will
 
now
 
offer
 
a
 
more
 
detailed
 
perspective
 
on
 
our
 
financial
 
outlook
 
for
 
2025
 
and
 
the
trajectory towards our exit-2026 targets and ambitions,
 
starting on slide 21.
 
With each of
 
our core businesses
 
well positioned to
 
drive sustainable growth,
 
in 2025 we
 
expect to generate
 
an
underlying return
 
on CET1
 
capital of
 
around
 
10% versus
 
8.7% in
 
2024. This
 
year-on-year increase
 
reflects
 
our
expectation that Non-core and Legacy will weigh on our
 
financial performance more significantly than last
 
year.
 
Importantly,
 
this also means that our
 
core businesses are expected
 
to be the main
 
drivers of year-on-year growth
in returns despite continuing
 
to absorb, together with
 
NCL, the costs associated
 
with restructuring and integrating
the businesses, legal entities, infrastructure and teams
 
inherited with the acquisition.
 
For full-year 2025,
 
we expect an effective
 
tax rate of
 
around 20%, as
 
we aim to
 
implement tax planning later
 
in
the year, mainly related to the combination of legal entities in the US.
 
The acceleration
 
we expect
 
in 2026, when
 
our in-year return
 
on CET1
 
should be
 
low teens
 
and our exit-rate
 
around
15%, will
 
be driven
 
predominantly by
 
the benefits
 
from more
 
than three
 
years of
 
extensive
 
integration, restructuring
and transformation effort.
 
As I’ve highlighted in
 
the past, we continue to
 
expect more significant cost
 
reductions across the
 
core businesses
as we retire legacy infrastructure and create further staff capacity.
 
Revenues should
 
also receive
 
an uplift
 
as we
 
complete the
 
integration and
 
play more
 
on our
 
front foot
 
with no
distractions, generating alpha across our core franchises.
Moreover,
 
most of the headwinds to returns we see
 
in 2025 are expected to dissipate
 
by the end of 2026. These
include
 
NII
 
and
 
credit
 
loss
 
expenses
 
in
 
Switzerland,
 
with
 
the
 
latter,
 
starting
 
next
 
year,
 
expected
 
to
 
reflect
 
a
substantial conversion towards P&C’s historical average cost of risk as a
 
result of increased allowances and legacy
Credit Suisse loan maturities.
Additionally, as we exit
 
2026, we
 
expect to
 
see better
 
profitability in our
 
US wealth
 
business, and
 
further reductions
to our Non-core and Legacy portfolio, decreasing its drag
 
on resources and profits.
As
 
I’ve
 
mentioned
 
before,
 
the
 
plans
 
underpinning
 
our
 
ambitions
 
are
 
largely
 
determined
 
by
 
factors
 
within
 
our
control.
 
While
 
we
 
expect
 
to
 
continue
 
to
 
invest
 
for
 
growth,
 
we
 
retain
 
the
 
necessary optionality
 
and
 
operating
flexibility to support our profitability and returns ambitions,
 
regardless of market conditions.
 
 
13
Slide 22 – Achieved 58% of gross cost saves ambition,
 
on track to ~13bn by year-end 2026
Turning to costs on Slide 22. As of year-end, we‘ve delivered 7.5 billion of cumulative gross run-rate cost saves, of
which 3.4 billion in
 
2024, putting us well on
 
track towards achieving our goal
 
of around 13 billion
 
by the end of
2026.
 
Of
 
the cumulative
 
gross
 
saves achieved
 
to date,
 
4
 
billion contributed
 
to net
 
cost reductions,
 
with much
 
of this
progress driven by NCL.
 
Importantly,
 
while the
 
overall cost
 
base decreased
 
by 10%
 
from its
 
2022 base
 
line, if
 
we exclude
 
litigation and
variable compensation linked to revenues, we delivered a 17% net reduction in underlying expenses on
 
this look-
through basis.
 
Looking out
 
over the next
 
two years,
 
we expect around
 
5 and
 
a half
 
billion of additional
 
gross cost
 
saves across
technology, third party spend, real estate and from unlocking additional staff capacity.
 
As
 
we’ve
 
highlighted
 
previously,
 
while
 
we
 
remain
 
continuously
 
focused
 
on
 
driving
 
cost
 
savings
 
by
 
reducing
duplication and streamlining wherever possible, we do
 
not expect our sequential cost reduction to be linear.
 
The impact on our cost base
 
varies each quarter, depending on the timing of large-scale
 
integration initiatives that
drive efficiencies across infrastructure, real estate and workforce optimization.
Over
 
the
 
next two
 
years,
 
the
 
most
 
meaningful driver
 
of
 
cost
 
reductions
 
will
 
be the
 
decommissioning of
 
legacy
infrastructure, with
 
the most
 
prominent example the
 
retirement of the
 
Swiss platform,
 
which will
 
only happen after
the client account migration is finalized next year.
At
 
that
 
point,
 
we’ll
 
decommission
 
the
 
associated
 
hardware,
 
data
 
centers
 
and
 
software
 
applications,
 
including
systems in the middle and back office that are linked to client
 
facing platforms.
 
The continued run-down
 
of NCL and
 
further rationalization of
 
our real
 
estate footprint and
 
legal entity structure
will also support
 
our realizing
 
cost synergies
 
over the
 
next two years
 
as we work
 
towards our exit-2026
 
cost/income
ratio target of less than 70%.
 
Moreover,
 
with almost 60%
 
of our gross
 
cost save ambition
 
achieved through the
 
end of 2024,
 
we now have
 
a
clearer line of sight as to the costs to achieve the
 
successful completion of our integration
 
plans.
 
We
 
now expect
 
cumulative integration-related
 
expenses to
 
total
 
around
 
14
 
billion.
 
The
 
1
 
billion in
 
incremental
spend largely compensates for lower-than-anticipated staff attrition
 
levels and accelerated real estate exits. It also
accounts for investments in new opportunities to unlock
 
long-term value creation in connection with select Credit
Suisse businesses.
Slide 23 – GWM – Unrivaled scale with interconnected
 
global franchises
Turning to our business divisions and starting with Global Wealth Management,
 
on slide 23.
 
With over 4
 
trillion in invested
 
assets, our scale,
 
global connectivity,
 
innovation and CIO-led
 
advice and solutions
uniquely position us to capture wallet and seize growth
 
opportunities across our global footprint.
GWM
 
Americas,
 
which
 
comprises
 
our
 
US,
 
Canada
 
and
 
Latin
 
America
 
wealth
 
businesses
 
is
 
a
 
leading
 
wealth
management provider, with 2.1 trillion of assets served by nearly 6 thousand financial
 
advisors.
 
 
 
14
In Switzerland and EMEA, we’re the number
 
one player,
 
combining our global offering with regional
 
adaptations
and client proximity.
 
And, in APAC,
 
with a broad and well-diversified footprint, we’re the number
 
one wealth manager,
 
twice as large
as our next closest competitor.
Slide 24 – GWM – Capitalizing on integration
 
and growing the platform
Moving to
 
slide 24.
 
In 2024,
 
GWM recorded
 
an underlying
 
pre-tax profit
 
of almost
 
5 billion
 
and an
 
underlying
cost/income ratio of 80%, while restoring its capital efficiency
 
to levels similar to those before the acquisition.
 
In 2025,
 
returns are
 
expected to
 
grow
 
year-over-year
 
as we
 
continue to
 
capitalize on
 
our enduring
 
competitive
advantages, underpinned by secular tailwinds.
 
The industry
 
trends we
 
see accelerating
 
across our
 
global family, ultra
 
and high
 
net worth
 
client segments,
 
including
legacy and
 
longevity-based planning
 
needs, geographic
 
wealth migration
 
and multi-disciplinary
 
client solutions,
play right to our strengths. We expect these dynamics
 
to drive revenue growth in 2025.
 
Moreover,
 
our teams
 
of advisors,
 
investment managers and
 
solution specialists are
 
leveraging our
 
client account
migration efforts
 
as a
 
unique opportunity
 
to review
 
and rebalance
 
client portfolios,
 
while supporting
 
our clients
during
 
their
 
transition
 
to
 
the
 
UBS
 
platform.
 
This
 
work
 
supports
 
our
 
outlook
 
of
 
continued,
 
increasing
 
mandate
penetration and gross margin stability.
 
Also, GWM’s costs
 
are expected
 
to decrease
 
over the course
 
of 2025,
 
principally as we
 
decommission platforms
following the first wave of client account
 
migration work completed last year.
 
As in 2024, GWM’s
 
net new asset
 
ambition will continue to
 
reflect the actions and
 
other dynamics I’ve
 
highlighted
that support higher pre-tax margins and returns
 
on attributed equity, but, at times, come at the expense of flows.
 
While in Switzerland, EMEA
 
and APAC,
 
the impact on flows
 
is expected to soften
 
over the course of
 
the year,
 
in
the US,
 
our efforts
 
to align
 
financial advisor
 
incentives with
 
our strategic
 
priorities may
 
result in
 
a short-term
 
increase
in FA
 
attrition, creating an additional headwind for net new
 
assets in the coming months. We
 
therefore maintain
our net new asset ambition of around 100 billion
 
for 2025.
 
Yet, in 2026, with the integration behind
 
us, and flow headwinds
 
fully addressed, we expect
 
GWM net new
 
assets
to begin to
 
accelerate towards our
 
ambition of 200
 
billion per annum
 
and over 5
 
trillion in invested
 
assets by 2028.
Moreover, the improvement in ECM
 
activity we’re starting
 
to observe
 
across the globe
 
should ultimately
 
play to our
asset-gathering strengths.
 
This coincides
 
with increasing
 
levels of
 
monetization among
 
wealth management
 
clients,
which is
 
expected to
 
translate into
 
greater
 
opportunities to
 
intensify engagement,
 
capture
 
share
 
of wallet,
 
and
deliver advice and solutions.
Slide 25 – GWM Americas – Strong franchise with upside
 
on profitability
Moving to the Americas on slide 25.
 
Our Americas wealth
 
business, our foothold
 
into the world’s
 
largest wealth pool,
 
is a
 
key pillar of
 
our long-term
growth strategy and value proposition to clients.
 
 
15
In addition to
 
accounting for around
 
50% of our
 
total asset base,
 
it also contributes
 
a similar proportion
 
to GWM’s
global revenues. Given
 
the strategic importance
 
of the Americas
 
business, we recognize
 
that improving its
 
financial
performance is both a necessity and a priority.
 
Since 2019, we’ve grown
 
the region’s invested
 
assets and revenues
 
at a CAGR
 
of 8% and
 
4%, respectively,
 
and
delivered profit margins averaging mid-teens. After reaching a record pre-tax margin of 19% in 2021, we’ve seen
profitability retreat to its current level of around 10%.
While our revenues have grown, expenses have grown faster.
 
With a business model mostly geared towards the most financially sophisticated ultra and family clients, the post-
pandemic market dynamics of rising equity prices and soaring interest rates caused a shift in our revenue mix that
drove up variable compensation levels and compressed profit margins.
 
At the
 
same time,
 
technology costs
 
were increasing
 
as part
 
of our
 
efforts to
 
improve and
 
modernize the digital
experience for our clients and advisors, but also to address past investments in large programs where delivery had
been suboptimal. On top of this, the cost of
 
recruiting advisors, back office spend and litigation
 
charges all grew.
 
To
 
address these challenges, we’re
 
changing how we
 
operate to improve profitability and
 
position the business
 
for
more efficient and sustainable growth.
Since the
 
end of
 
last
 
year,
 
we’ve already
 
taken actions
 
to streamline
 
our
 
organizational structure,
 
improve
 
cost
discipline and align the incentives of our financial advisors to our strategic objectives. As these changes take hold,
and given our
 
intention to fund
 
incremental strategic investments,
 
we expect our
 
pre-tax margin in
 
2025 to remain
at broadly current levels. We then expect to make more material progress and steadily
 
improve towards mid-teens
by 2027.
 
At that point,
 
the business will
 
be better positioned to
 
further expand its
 
profitability and help
 
the global wealth
franchise deliver beyond its end-2026 target
 
of a greater than 30% underlying pre-tax margin.
Let me highlight the key changes we’re implementing
 
on slide 26.
Slide 26 –
 
GWM Americas – Working to deliver ~15% PBT margin
 
by 2027 (1/2)
First, on service models. Our strong
 
track record in serving
 
sophisticated clients demonstrates the effectiveness of
close collaboration across the
 
organization. This is
 
clearly reflected in the
 
21% year-over-year increase in Americas’
transactional revenues after we introduced joint coverage of GWM
 
clients with IB markets specialists.
Moreover,
 
our
 
experience tells
 
us
 
that
 
the
 
use
 
of
 
one
 
or
 
more
 
of
 
our
 
specialized
 
capabilities has
 
a
 
meaningful
multiplier effect on revenue generation.
 
We’re building a regionally-aligned, multi-disciplinary
 
team approach, and
extending this offering
 
to a broader
 
population of our
 
existing ultra-high net
 
worth clients to
 
accelerate revenue
growth. We’re rolling out this set-up immediately, and scaling it over the course of 2025.
Second, on client
 
mix. Going
 
forward we intend
 
to better
 
balance our
 
client base
 
across wealth bands
 
by increasing
investment and penetration in the high net
 
worth and core affluent segments to drive scale and profitability.
To
 
that end,
 
we’re streamlining
 
and automating
 
product and
 
content distribution
 
and developing
 
more tailored
segment-specific solutions, leveraging our CIO and
 
National Sales capabilities.
 
 
16
In
 
addition,
 
we’re
 
investing
 
in
 
our
 
digitally-led
 
advice
 
model
 
in
 
the
 
Wealth
 
Advice
 
Center
 
to
 
make
 
it
 
a
 
more
meaningful contributor
 
to organic
 
growth and to
 
lower our cost
 
to serve.
 
By more than
 
doubling our
 
Advice Center
staff, we aim to create further capacity to acquire and serve more clients
 
and increase wallet with existing ones. In
addition, the Wealth Advice Center becomes an effective pipeline for future
 
FAs and a
 
more cost-efficient way to
scale our business.
 
Another
 
key
 
aspect
 
of
 
our
 
rebalancing
 
efforts
 
relates
 
to
 
enhancing
 
our
 
feeder channels.
 
We
 
intend
 
to
 
expand
sources of asset
 
acquisition by
 
revising our
 
referral and
 
incentive structures
 
while centralizing
 
and investing
 
in digital
marketing.
 
We’re
 
also
 
developing
 
a
 
comprehensive,
 
integrated
 
workplace
 
wealth
 
solution
 
across
 
equity
 
and
retirement plans, and
 
financial planning
 
and wellness.
 
We believe a
 
signature workplace
 
wealth offering
 
with state-
of-the-art
 
digital
 
capabilities
 
will
 
serve
 
as
 
a
 
highly
 
effective
 
client-lead
 
generator,
 
aligning
 
with
 
our
 
priority
 
to
improve penetration across wealth bands.
 
Third. On the capabilities side, we’re
 
taking critical steps to build out
 
a full suite of banking capabilities
 
to enhance
our ability to
 
serve our clients and
 
their business interests.
 
This will help
 
us expand our
 
access to deposits, better
balance
 
our
 
revenue
 
mix,
 
deepen
 
client
 
relationships,
 
and,
 
importantly,
 
foster
 
enduring
 
engagement
 
and
connectivity between our clients and UBS.
 
Expanding and enhancing
 
our banking product
 
offering requires
 
that we obtain
 
a National Charter,
 
a multi-year
process that is presently in full swing.
Slide 27 –
 
GWM Americas – Working to deliver ~15% PBT margin
 
by 2027 (2/2)
Now moving to slide 27.
 
Underpinning
 
these
 
initiatives
 
and
 
their
 
success
 
is
 
a
 
necessary
 
operational
 
re-alignment
 
of
 
the
 
structure,
performance culture and tech strategy in our Americas
 
wealth franchise.
So, fourth, effective January first,
 
we simplified the organizational structure to drive
 
greater collaboration, reduce
duplication
 
and
 
create
 
synergies,
 
thereby
 
contributing
 
to
 
improved
 
productivity
 
and
 
efficiency.
 
This
 
includes
regionally
 
aligning
 
our
 
client-facing
 
teams,
 
reducing
 
management
 
layers
 
and
 
fostering
 
clear
 
accountability and
faster decision-making.
Recently,
 
we also
 
announced changes
 
to our
 
financial advisor
 
compensation model.
 
We
 
aim
 
to better
 
align
 
FA
incentives
 
with
 
the
 
strategic
 
goals
 
of
 
the
 
firm
 
by
 
rewarding
 
net
 
new
 
money,
 
new
 
client
 
acquisition
 
and
 
the
broadening of existing client relationships, with a specific
 
incentive for NII growth.
 
While we designed these changes to incentivize greater production and ultimately higher compensation levels for
advisors in full sync with our
 
strategy, we may see a short-term rise in FA attrition, which is reflected in our pre-tax
margin expectation for 2025.
And
 
finally,
 
we’re
 
implementing
 
a
 
strategic
 
re-set
 
in
 
terms
 
of
 
how
 
we
 
invest
 
and
 
modernize
 
our
 
technology
infrastructure. We’re now
 
delivering new
 
and advanced
 
digital capabilities
 
in a
 
dynamic, modular
 
fashion that
 
make
it easier for our clients and advisors to do
 
business with, and on behalf of, UBS.
This
 
approach
 
will
 
enable more
 
efficient
 
execution of
 
our
 
technology roadmap
 
with
 
improved
 
payback, which,
together with
 
an expanded
 
tech budget,
 
will create
 
additional capacity
 
to fund
 
innovative solutions
 
to improve
advisor productivity and drive growth.
 
 
17
We believe these actions, which are being decisively executed by our new leadership team, will drive margins to a
mid-teens level by 2027, while positioning the
 
Americas wealth business for long-term
 
growth.
 
A final word
 
on providing more
 
visibility to track our
 
performance going forward. While
 
the ultimate measure of
our progress
 
in the Americas
 
is improvement in
 
our regional pre
 
-tax margin, beginning in
 
1Q, we’ll enhance
 
our
regional disclosure by breaking out revenue across the various categories and including
 
prior period comparatives.
 
Slide 28 – P&C – A core pillar of our strategy and reliable partner
 
to the Swiss economy
 
Turning to slide
 
26 and
 
onto our
 
Swiss business.
 
As the
 
leading bank
 
for corporate
 
and private
 
clients in
 
the country,
our
 
Swiss
 
universal bank,
 
with
 
P&C
 
at
 
its
 
core,
 
showcases
 
the
 
power
 
of
 
close
 
collaboration, creating
 
value
 
for
clients.
 
Even while
 
absorbing NII
 
and CLE
 
headwinds, optimizing its
 
balance sheet,
 
and preparing
 
for the
 
client account
migration, P&C alone contributed over one
 
third of the Group’s 2024 underlying pre-tax profits.
 
As we expect the headwinds I
 
highlighted earlier to weigh on P&C’s returns
 
in 2025, we aim to
 
partially mitigate
the effects
 
of these
 
challenges by
 
growing non-NII
 
revenues, while
 
also striving
 
to minimize
 
client and
 
asset outflows
during the migration process.
Moreover,
 
the completion of the client
 
account migration work will allow
 
us to realize
 
cost synergies and further
invest in digital capabilities improving the client experience
 
and efficiency of our platform.
 
By
 
2026,
 
we intend
 
to fully
 
capitalize on
 
growth
 
opportunities with
 
no
 
distractions. Our
 
Swiss business
 
will
 
be
uniquely positioned to
 
offer exceptional value
 
throughout the client
 
lifecycle by delivering
 
a comprehensive suite
of services spanning wealth management,
 
asset management and investment banking.
 
Our primary focus
 
will be
 
on reinforcing
 
our standing as
 
the go-to
 
bank for
 
large corporates, entrepreneurs
 
and
emerging affluent clients with leading financing, asset
 
servicing and wealth advice capabilities.
 
This positioning,
 
coupled with
 
a more
 
streamlined cost
 
base, give
 
us confidence
 
in our
 
ability to
 
grow the
 
P&C
business at least as
 
fast as Swiss GDP,
 
while delivering a cost/income ratio
 
of less than 50%
 
and a pre-tax
 
return
on equity of near 20% by the end of 2026.
 
Slide 29 –
 
AM – Driving focused growth and improving operating
 
leverage
 
I now turn to Asset Management on
 
slide 29.
Our strategic
 
positioning, expanded
 
product offering
 
and enhanced
 
regional
 
scale in
 
select markets
 
are
 
already
supporting healthy momentum in Asset Management. Despite the impact of the integration, we saw 45 billion in
net new money
 
enter our platform
 
in 2024 while
 
we remain focused
 
on continuing
 
to capture opportunities
 
where
we have a differentiated and scalable offering.
 
This includes
 
our recently
 
launched Unified
 
Global Alternatives
 
unit, which,
 
with nearly
 
300 billion
 
in invested
 
assets,
makes us a leading
 
global player and
 
top-5 limited partner. By combining our
 
leading manager selection
 
franchises
across GWM and
 
Asset Management, we can
 
now offer our
 
wealth management and institutional
 
clients access
to exclusive
 
investment opportunities,
 
while providing
 
GPs with
 
a single
 
point of
 
access to
 
the full
 
distribution power
of UBS.
 
 
18
Overall, with a focus on alternatives,
 
improved traditional investment performance
 
and customized client solutions
at scale, we continue to
 
expect positive net new
 
money growth in 2025 while
 
completing our fund shelf
 
transition
and platform consolidation.
 
At the same time, we’re investing in our existing platform
 
to build-out key capabilities, create cost efficiencies and
support our AI strategy.
 
We’ll
 
also
 
remain
 
focused
 
on
 
realizing
 
cost
 
synergies
 
from
 
the
 
integration
 
and
 
driving
 
structural
 
operational
efficiencies from our strategic cost
 
program. Together
 
with further exits of non-strategic businesses, these
 
efforts
are expected to improve our profit margin in Asset Management
 
to above 30% by the end of 2026.
Slide 30 – IB - Integration complete, unlocking opportunities
 
for long-term value
 
Now moving to the Investment Bank, on slide
 
30.
 
Over the last twelve
 
months, we’ve generated
 
more than half a billion
 
of incremental underlying revenue
 
in Global
Banking
 
and
 
delivered
 
record
 
performance
 
in
 
Global
 
Markets,
 
including
 
reaching
 
record
 
market
 
share
 
in
 
Cash
Equities.
Looking forward,
 
with favorable
 
market conditions,
 
the completion
 
of the
 
Credit
 
Suisse integration,
 
and earlier
investments starting to pay off, we aim to enhance
 
our IB’s returns in 2025.
 
In Banking, we remain
 
encouraged by our pipeline in M&A
 
and LCM and our improved
 
position in the Americas,
which together are expected to support year-on-year revenue
 
growth in 2025.
I should note
 
that, while
 
there continues to
 
be broad-based positive
 
sentiment around the
 
market backdrop,
 
global
fee
 
pools in
 
January were
 
off
 
by
 
more
 
than 20%
 
year-on-year.
 
Additionally,
 
despite
 
greater
 
market activity
 
in
equity capital markets,
 
productivity improvement visible
 
in our own
 
ECM business
 
is more likely to
 
yield meaningful
revenue growth later in 2025 and into 2026, considering the
 
timeline of our pipeline build.
 
This said,
 
with market
 
share in the
 
Americas over
 
two times
 
pre-acquisition levels,
 
we remain confident
 
in our
 
ability
to double Banking revenues in 2026 compared to our
 
2022 baseline.
 
It’s
 
also
 
worth
 
highlighting
 
that
 
our
 
Investment
 
Bank
 
will
 
be
 
the
 
only
 
major
 
player
 
in
 
the
 
US
 
and
 
Europe
implementing final Basel III regulations, and in particular FRTB. Upholding our capital-light business model despite
this additional cost
 
of capital, the
 
IB remains
 
committed to achieve
 
its pre-tax
 
return on equity
 
ambition of 15%
through the cycle while continuing to consume no
 
more than 25% of the Group’s risk weighted assets.
Slide 31 –
 
NCL – Run-down well ahead of schedule
Turning to Non-core and Legacy on slide 31.
 
The performance delivered by
 
the Non-core
 
and Legacy team in
 
2024 contributed to a
 
significant acceleration in
our de-risking, cost saving and capital release plans.
In particular, what we achieved during the last 6 quarters has fundamentally altered NCL’s
 
balance sheet and risk
position entering 2025, with
 
RWA from its Credit, Securitized Products,
 
Equities and Macro books
 
reduced by over
70%.
In addition to now being
 
much smaller, and yielding less net carry, these books are broadly
 
hedged against market
moves, thereby effectively mitigating risks but also limiting
 
revenue upside.
 
19
Additionally,
 
a significant portion
 
of the
 
funding costs associated
 
with the
 
overall portfolio relates
 
to long-dated
Holdco and Opco
 
debt that Credit
 
Suisse issued during
 
its crisis. These
 
instruments are prohibitively
 
expensive to
redeem prior to maturity, making them a sticky component of NCL’s costs, irrespective of funding
 
needs.
 
As a
 
result,
 
for full
 
year 2025,
 
we estimate
 
NCL’s top
 
line at
 
around negative
 
500 million,
 
mainly from
 
funding
costs, with revenues from remaining fair value positions and continued exits
 
expected around zero. Excluded from
this estimate is a
 
gain of around 100
 
million expected in
 
the first quarter
 
from closing the sale of
 
Credit Suisse’s US
mortgage servicing company that we announced
 
last year.
We also anticipate
 
NCL’s underlying
 
operating expenses
 
ex-litigation to
 
continue to
 
reduce over
 
the course
 
of 2025,
averaging around 450 million per quarter.
 
Accordingly,
 
in 2025, NCL’s underlying pre-tax loss excluding litigation is expected to be around 2.2 billion, albeit
with sequential improvements as expenses and consumption-based
 
funding costs decrease.
 
This compares to
 
an underlying pre-tax loss
 
in 2024 of around
 
800 million, inclusive of
 
litigation releases. 2024’s
performance benefitted
 
from net
 
carry income
 
and our
 
exiting positions
 
at prices
 
above
 
book value,
 
neither of
which is
 
expected to
 
repeat
 
at
 
similar levels.
 
Consequently,
 
in
 
2025, NCL
 
is
 
expected to
 
substantially weigh
 
on
returns year-over-year.
 
Looking further
 
out, we
 
expect NCL
 
to exit
 
2026 with
 
less than
 
5% of
 
Group RWA, consisting
 
of less
 
than 10
 
billion
of market and credit risk.
 
We also expect to exit 2026
 
with pre-tax loss of under
 
1 billion as the business
 
continues
its strong cost reduction
 
trajectory.
 
This is anticipated to consist
 
of annualized operating expenses of around
 
750
million and annualized net funding costs of around 200
 
million.
 
We then intend
 
to run down
 
NCL’s legacy operating
 
expenses to a
 
level below 250
 
million by the
 
end of 2028
 
with
funding costs tapering over an extended timeframe as legacy Credit
 
Suisse funding matures. By the end of
 
2028,
we forecast around 100 million of legacy funding costs
 
per annum, fully running down by 2033.
 
Our outlook for the run-off of NCL’s operational risk RWA for now remains in line
 
with the trajectory we modeled
under our internal
 
method and
 
disclosed previously. This reflects
 
the fact that,
 
unlike what
 
is expected to
 
eventually
apply in the US, UK and across Europe,
 
the 2025 Swiss implementation of the standardized approach imposes an
internal
 
loss
 
multiplier
 
well
 
above
 
1,
 
thereby
 
resulting
 
in
 
significant
 
RWA
 
primarily
 
for
 
losses
 
and
 
matters
 
we
inherited from Credit Suisse.
 
Slide 32 – Disciplined management of capital,
 
liquidity and funding
Picking up on my earlier comments, slide 32 showcases
 
our strong financial position at year-end 2024 and related
regulatory measures. Our
 
balance sheet for
 
all seasons underpins
 
our ability to
 
consistently deliver for our
 
clients
and shareholders, while we
 
ourselves maintain resilience through
 
disciplined risk management and strong
 
capital
and liquidity levels.
At the end of
 
2024, our Group total
 
loss-absorbing capacity stood
 
at 185 billion,
 
with a going concern
 
capital ratio
of 17.6%, and, as mentioned, a CET1 capital
 
ratio of 14.3%.
We closed 2024 with AT1 capital at 3.3%
 
of RWA. During the year, we successfully issued 3.5
 
billion in AT1 as we
build towards our ambition and regulatory allowance of
 
4.3% of RWA. Given
 
our progress to date and
 
based on
our projected 2025 funding needs, we expect our AT1
 
capital to remain at current levels through
 
2025 with new
issuance offsetting potential calls.
20
Gone-concern capital at
 
year-end was 98
 
billion. As
 
a reminder,
 
while this
 
is around
 
40 billion
 
above the Group
regulatory minimum, our binding constraint is UBS AG’s standalone requirement. Looking
 
ahead, we’re targeting
to bring
 
down Group
 
HoldCo to
 
around 90
 
billion by
 
the end
 
of 2025
 
while still
 
retaining resilient
 
buffers over
regulatory minimums. This target, which is expected
 
to contribute substantial savings
 
in funding costs, is based on
the expectation that UBS AG standalone
 
requirements will decrease as a result of further balance sheet reductions
and the reorganization of remaining former Credit Suisse operating
 
companies.
 
UBS AG’s
 
standalone CET1
 
capital ratio
 
at year-end is
 
estimated to
 
be 13.5%.
 
For the
 
foreseeable future,
 
we expect
UBS AG to operate
 
with a standalone
 
CET1 capital ratio
 
in the range of
 
12.5% to 13%,
 
around 2 and a
 
half points
above the current regulatory minimum on a fully applied basis.
This guidance factors
 
in the effects
 
of our ongoing
 
integration efforts and
 
also considers the
 
prospect of settling
Credit Suisse legacy
 
litigation matters
 
that could result
 
in charges to
 
the parent bank
 
despite coverage
 
at the
 
Group
level
 
from
 
PPA
 
reserves
 
established
 
on
 
the
 
acquisition
 
date.
 
This
 
target
 
capital
 
level
 
also
 
accounts
 
for
 
planned
dividends and capital from subsidiaries.
During the fourth quarter,
 
13 billion of
 
capital was repatriated
 
to the parent
 
bank from its
 
subsidiaries in the
 
UK
and the US.
 
Of
 
the
 
total,
 
6
 
billion
 
was
 
paid
 
up
 
from
 
UBS
 
Americas
 
Holding.
 
The
 
UK
 
subsidiary,
 
Credit
 
Suisse
 
International,
repatriated 7 billion,
 
with around 5
 
billion of additional
 
distributions expected
 
as we
 
continue to unwind
 
or transfer
its positions, subject to customary regulatory approval.
 
As Sergio
 
mentioned, it’s
 
important to
 
note that
 
we’ve planned
 
for this
 
distribution of
 
capital from
 
subsidiaries
since the
 
acquisition. As
 
such, it
 
forms part
 
of our
 
capital return
 
ambitions while
 
maintaining our
 
target capital
ratios at both the Group level and the parent bank.
 
Therefore, broadly speaking,
 
new capital
 
requirements from Too Big To Fail imposed
 
at the
 
parent bank level
 
would
need to be
 
funded by
 
a higher retention
 
of profits, consequently
 
leading to an
 
overshooting of
 
capital at
 
the Group
level and resulting in a lower overall return on CET1 capital,
 
all other things being equal.
 
On to liquidity
 
and funding. As we
 
aim to balance efficiency
 
with resiliency and safety,
 
over the past 18
 
months,
we’ve been maintaining our LCR above pre-acquisition levels. This approach was necessary to facilitate the phase-
in of the
 
more stringent
 
Swiss liquidity
 
requirements, which has
 
now been
 
completed, and
 
to sustain
 
a conservative
liquidity profile during the initial stages of our
 
balance sheet stabilization and integration
 
process.
 
Going forward, we expect to operate with an LCR below our
 
4Q24 level of 188%, reflecting continued efforts to
manage towards a more efficient funding structure and reduced uncertainties
 
associated with execution risk.
 
Overall, our
 
current funding
 
strategy focuses
 
on enhancing
 
the quality
 
of our
 
liability portfolios
 
while delivering
cost efficiencies. This
 
involves the right-sizing of
 
our AT1
 
and TLAC stacks,
 
disciplined deposit pricing, and
 
active
management of
 
our liabilities
 
across tenors
 
and products
 
to ensure
 
a robust,
 
diversified,
 
and resilient
 
funding profile.
Coupled
 
with
 
significant
 
balance
 
sheet
 
reductions
 
achieved
 
in
 
2024
 
and
 
tighter
 
spreads,
 
these
 
measures
 
have
already generated annual funding cost savings of 650
 
million, with an additional 350 million expected
 
by 2026.
 
 
21
Slide 33 – Balance sheet optimization funds
 
profitable growth
Turning to slide 33 on RWA
 
and starting with
 
an update on
 
the implementation
 
of the final Basel
 
III reforms, which
in Switzerland took effect on January 1st.
 
We intend to
 
report a
 
day-1 impact of
 
around 1
 
billion of incremental
 
RWA, broadly
 
neutral to our
 
CET1 capital
ratio, a
 
result reflective
 
of many
 
months of intense,
 
diligent preparation. This
 
amount of RWA
 
includes increases
related to
 
FRTB of
 
9 billion,
 
decreases from
 
credit-risk related
 
adjustments of
 
1 billion,
 
and a
 
reduction in
 
operational
risk of 7 billion.
 
Looking at
 
our expectations
 
through 2026.
 
Over the
 
next two
 
years, we
 
expect our
 
Group RWA
 
to increase
 
by
around 2 percent
 
at constant FX from
 
our 1 January 2025
 
pro-forma levels. This reflects
 
around 15 billion higher
RWA from business growth in the core businesses, with the offset driven by the ongoing
 
run-off in NCL.
 
Summing this up, we get to the same expected RWA level at the end of 2026 as we guided a year ago. However,
with
 
faster
 
NCL
 
reductions
 
than
 
foreseen,
 
a
 
lower
 
than
 
expected
 
headwind
 
from
 
Basel
 
III
 
finalization,
 
and
accelerated benefits from
 
our balance sheet optimization
 
efforts, we increased capacity
 
to support additional
 
RWA
growth in our core businesses to drive incremental revenues.
Slide 34 – Reiterating our financial targets
 
and long-term ambitions
In conclusion, we’re
 
pleased with the
 
progress and
 
achievement made in 2024.
 
And as we
 
move forward, we’re
confident in our
 
ability to successfully deliver
 
on our integration
 
plans, meet our financial
 
targets and drive long-
term value creation for our shareholders.
 
With that, let’s open up for
 
questions.
22
Analyst Q&A (CEO
 
and CFO)
Chris Hallam, Goldman Sachs
Yeah. Good morning, everybody. So on integration, on the one hand, you ran ahead of plan in 2024, clearly,
the RoCET1 has ended up much better than
 
expected, but on the other hand, you're
 
also guiding to around an
extra 1 billion in cumulative integration cost
 
by year end 2026 with an unchanged exit
 
rate on returns. So, I
guess, to what extent can we characterize
 
this? Is it essentially the easy part of the
 
integration has now come
to an end and now the hard work on decommissioning
 
and data integration begins, i.e., have we seen,
 
have
we sort of front loaded the integration tailwinds or
 
is there still scope to outperform here over the next couple
of years?
And then second, on capital, you have the
 
caveats on the buyback target that this
 
is on the basis of no material
and immediate change in the current capital regime. What's
 
your assessment of the likelihood that such
changes could be both material and immediate,
 
versus the potential for them being material,
 
but with a long
phase in or smaller than expected, but with
 
immediate applicability? And what is your
 
best sense on when we
might get final clarity and resolution on this topic? Sergio,
 
I think you mentioned earlier that the public
consultation begins in May. Thank you.
Sergio P.
 
Ermotti
Let me pick up the second question and
 
then I'll pass it to Todd. So, I think in terms of, you know, the
caveating on our capital returns is quite consistent
 
with previous language. You know, being, you know,
staying at 14%, delivering on our financial plans,
 
but also reducing the risk of the execution of the
 
integration.
So in that sense, you know, I just want to remind that the massive migration of
 
data we're going to go through
in 2025 creates potential operational risk. So we have
 
to be prudent about how we also look at share
buybacks. Having said that, I'm still confident
 
that we will be able to do that.
Now, you know, I have no more visibility than you have in respect of how things are going to develop other
than what is publicly presented. I have, you know, I can continue to say that
 
it is for us not appropriate to
speculate on any outcome. And, you know, so we will engage till the
 
last minutes to make sure that whatever
proposal is put on the place is reflecting of the concerns
 
and topics that I raised in my remarks.
Todd
 
Tuckner
And Chris, on the first one, just to point
 
out a few things that no, it's not – the change
 
is not reflective of what
we consider to be more, more complex versus less complex.
 
Important to note that, you know, when we
developed this view a year back, this was seen
 
as a very low multiplier when you look at
 
13 billion of cost to
achieve versus the gross cost saves that we
 
anticipated. And we're still even with 14 billion at a
 
very low
multiplier.
And so it should be seen in that light, but it's
 
important to highlight that the changes
 
were invited by certain
assumptions we modeled a year ago and we
 
saw changes which I highlighted in
 
my comments earlier. But also
importantly, we've identified incremental opportunities as we've worked through the integration to
 
unlock
additional shareholder value, and that's taken some incremental
 
cost to achieve that.
Chris Hallam, Goldman Sachs
Okay. Thanks very much.
23
Anke Reingen, RBC
Sorry. Yeah.
 
Thank you much for taking my question.
 
Two questions, please. On the first one coming back to
the too big to fail was, I mean, you stressed a few
 
times the potential impact on your return currently, on your
current assumptions based on 14%. I know there's a lot
 
of uncertainty, but do you think considering
depending on the outcome, you will have
 
room to offset your ROE dilution for more capital requirements? And
then thank you on the US wealth management
 
operation, a few details here. I'm just wondering
 
obviously you
talked about improving the performance of the
 
US operations a few times before. So what will be
 
different this
time that this will work out? Thank you very
 
much.
Sergio P.
 
Ermotti
Thank you, Anke. Unfortunately, as I mentioned before, there is no easy fixes and there is no potential
 
offset
on the table that is not already planned and communicated.
 
So no easy fixes, no low hanging fruits.
 
Whatever
comes is on top of our plans, and it will be dilutive.
 
Todd?
Todd
 
Tuckner
Hi, Anke. You know,
 
look, in terms of what's different, we wanted to highlight
 
the things that we're doing
now and demonstrate the initiatives we're undertaking
 
and the plans that we have that will help us
 
chip away.
You know,
 
we're being realistic in terms of what we think the margins
 
can be over the mid-term, and we have
a very comprehensive way at that. There is no silver bullet
 
where there's one thing where you say that's going
to effectively transform the pre-tax margin. But what I
 
think you heard me say, and Sergio alluded to in his
opening, is that we're very focused to actually across these
 
various levers. We're implementing them all. And
they're, you know, in the collective, we're going to contribute to improving the efficiency of the
 
business. So
I'd say that's our focus and that's where we look, that's
 
the outcome we're looking to drive.
Anke Reingen, RBC
Thank you.
Jeremy Sigee, BNP Paribas
Yeah. Morning. Thank you. Two questions, please. Firstly,
 
just to sort of revenue in the quarter, the capital
markets growth. So ECM and DCM was a bit less than
 
some of the peer groups, 11% year-on-year. I just
wondered if there's any mix reasons for that or if there's any sort of delay still
 
in Credit Suisse teams becoming
fully productive. So just a question on capital markets
 
revenues.
And then second question is on the foreign subsidiaries
 
topic. It sounds like you've reduced the UBS Americas
CET1 ratio to around 20% from the previous 27%. In the past,
 
you've run that anywhere from 14% to 22%. Is
it realistic to think about going back into the mid to
 
high teens in that subsidiary on a, say, five-year view?
Todd
 
Tuckner
Hi, Jeremy. Just on the second one. So we are targeting and as you acknowledge from the capital repatriation,
the CET1, capital in the IHC has come down
 
significantly. We are targeting a lower CET1 capital ratio, say, in
the upper teens level, but on a like-for-like basis under the Swiss
 
standards, that's more in line with the 13% to
15% CET1 capital ratio. So that addresses that.
On the IB question, I'll – just to point out on
 
DCM, clearly, we're underweight versus peers. So you're seeing
that manifest in the, in our performance. In
 
ECM, as I highlighted, you know, we're building, but the timing of
our pipeline build is likely to yield more payback later
 
in 2025 into 2026.
24
Jeremy Sigee, BNP Paribas
Okay. Thank you.
Kian Abouhossein, JPMorgan
Yes, thanks for taking my question. I really only have question regarding the key slide 32. Sergio, I get
 
the
message: don't get overexcited in terms of how
 
capital would be repatriated and solve potentially
 
a capital
issue. But if I look at slide 32 and I got very
 
excited when I saw the 13 billion, but
 
clearly, it hasn't ended up in
the parent bank. It has been further upstreamed. It looks
 
like it. And I'm just trying to understand the
 
rationale
of the upstream and also trying to understand if
 
there's room to downstream again, if necessary.
And in that context and also trying to understand
 
how much more capital is there in CS International?
 
It should
be something like 5 billion to 6 billion from what I calculate.
 
And if there's any other subsidiaries that you
would highlight, where there's room for potential further upstreaming into
 
the parent going forward? So really
just trying to square the process. I'm a little bit confused
 
in that sense and if you could help me, I would
 
really
appreciate it.
Sergio P.
 
Ermotti
Thank you, Kian. I'm sorry, and I really appreciate your enthusiasm. And I'm sorry that you started
 
with an
enthusiasm and then you ended up being confused.
 
So in that sense, I can only reiterate that we don't
 
really
have some, so much low-hanging fruits here. There is no short
 
fixes. There are technicalities that I think that
Todd
 
can explain you now, but that's essentially the situation. So
 
we have been quite coherent and consistent
in saying and planning for capital, you know, well ahead of the
 
curve when we started to plan for the 2026
targets.
Kian Abouhossein, JPMorgan
Sergio, just to add. I'm a bank analyst. I can
 
get excited very quickly so just to put
 
in context.
Sergio P.
 
Ermotti
Well don’t tell me.
Todd
 
Tuckner
Kian, I think it's worth just pointing out that,
 
remember, when we acquired Credit Suisse and the capital ratios
at the parent bank were, you know, distressed relative to what the UBS AG's fully applied capital ratio
 
was and
the strength and resilience of our capital on the UBS side.
 
Also to consider, you know, the equity double
leverage that was there on the Credit Suisse side. And
 
as we inherited that, the pressure it put, you know, on
our own, just given what we had to address and pushing
 
up that double leverage.
So, you know, taking out the capital and rebalancing the capital from former Credit Suisse
 
subsidiaries in, say,
the UK and the US, you know, up to the parent and fundamentally at group level,
 
as you say, has been part of
the plan, but also helps to alleviate the pressure in the
 
equity double leverage. And I think that's
 
an important
point to mention. And that's why we made
 
the comment that, you know, if there's going to be onerous capital
imposed on the parent bank, it's going to be funded
 
with the retention of future profits.
25
Kian Abouhossein, JPMorgan
And just on double leverage, how much of
 
the 13 billion do you actually require for double leverage and
 
how
much do you allocate for payback to shareholders? So
 
we just get an idea how much is potentially
 
excess in the
holding, if there's any.
Todd
 
Tuckner
It's a – look, of that amount that we have
 
repatriated, there's a significant part of it that is used to support
moving to a more normalized level of equity double
 
leverage level, a significant portion of it.
 
Thank you, Kian.
Kian Abouhossein, JPMorgan
Thank you. Okay. And just on the 6 billion in the CS International, roughly 5
 
to 6 billion, is that correct, that's
what's remaining?
Todd
 
Tuckner
Yes, I highlighted that in my comments as well that that's what we see.
 
You know,
 
naturally, it's a function of
timing and ensuring that we continue to
 
run down the positions in that entity and
 
get the support from the
regulator to repatriate the remaining capital in that entity as we transfer
 
our positions, as I mentioned. And,
you know, there could be leakage between now and then if we have losses
 
in the entity. So, you know,
conservatively, I mentioned around 5 billion that would come from CSI from here.
Kian Abouhossein, JPMorgan
Thank you.
Giulia Miotto, Morgan Stanley
Yes. Hi. Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two.
 
Going back to slide 31 on the Non-core
deleveraging, how is it possible that, if I exclude
 
op risk, which I understand is driven by
 
a formula, that's fine.
But on credit and market risk, capital risk came down
 
by 42 billion since Q2 2023, and now you
 
only plan to
cut 7 billion in 2025. Why wouldn't we
 
expect a faster deleveraging there given the market
 
is still very
supportive? And then secondly, thanks for all the additional detail on the GWM in
 
the US. On the NII discussion
in that division, which I look forward to the disclosure in Q1 - I guess
 
having operating under a national charter
other than Utah would help. But how quickly
 
do you expect to get that license, please?
 
Thank you.
Todd
 
Tuckner
Giulia. So on the credit and market risk ambition
 
in terms of the levels taking it down, you
 
know, I think this
goes really to the point I highlighted in my comments
 
in the context of the underlying PBT we see
 
in 2025
versus 2024. I made comments that, you know, the positions at this point
 
are much smaller than we've seen.
They're hedged at times. They could be – could have
 
transfer restrictions associated with them. We have to
ensure the counterparty is willing to terminate. There could
 
be exotic security types with bespoke features that
limit potential buyers.
So there are a lot of issues as you get down into the portfolio
 
and you have much smaller positions
 
in these
books, that's going to take, you know, extensive amount of work
 
to see, you know, chip away at progress. So
a lot of the, you know, the big rocks and larger positions that generated significant
 
RWA reduction, but also
invited an ability to exit at levels above book
 
value, you know, we're going to become further and farther and
less likely as we move forward. So I think it's just
 
important to understand that in the context
 
as well of the
RWA rundown.
26
In terms of your second question on the national
 
charter and the timing, look, we're working on moving
forward with getting the application in. There's a lot of
 
work being done. And we're going to work as quickly
as we can to get that rolled out and to enhance our
 
banking product offering. I mean, we're not standing still
at the moment. We're doing a lot of work in that respect now also to,
 
you know, go live. But certainly, having
that license will unlock certain product capabilities that
 
just aren't possible until we have it.
Giulia Miotto, Morgan Stanley
Got it. But is it fair to expect that, you know, three years longer, shorter?
Todd
 
Tuckner
Giulia, I think that's just something we'll continue
 
to update you on. I don't want
 
to predict the process
because we're working obviously also with supervisors
 
to get that, get the license approved. So the timeline
 
is
something we're working actively on, but we'll keep
 
you updated.
Giulia Miotto, Morgan Stanley
Understood. Thank you.
Sergio P.
 
Ermotti
And maybe just to add on, on Non-core, we always
 
said that at the end of the day, of course, if we really want
to take down market and credit risk overnight,
 
we could probably find a price at which to do
 
it. But now if that
price is well in excess of our cost of
 
capital and expected return, that would be a
 
stupid trade. So we are
constantly looking to optimize shareholder interest as
 
we wind down this asset. So it doesn't really make sense
to create new capital at a cost that is well above, how
 
we expect to deliver in terms of returns.
Giulia Miotto, Morgan Stanley
Got it. Thank you.
Stefan Stalmann, Autonomous Research
Hi. Yes, good morning. Thank you very much for taking my questions. I wanted
 
to ask about the US wealth
management plans, please. It looks like
 
you're tilting away the business mix from the high end of
 
the market
towards more affluent and lower wealth brackets, which is pretty much the
 
opposite of what you've been
trying to achieve over the last 20 years, I would
 
say. What has changed? Why are you coming to this different
assessment of the relative attractiveness of different wealth brackets
 
in the US?
And the second question, I just wanted to
 
make sure that I understood this correctly. The share buyback plans
and aims that you outlined, they are not yet accrued
 
and deducted from CET1 capital at the year end,
 
isn't it?
Thank you very much.
Todd
 
Tuckner
Hi, Stefan. The – yeah, with respect to the 2 billion
 
[
Edit: 3 billion
] that we aim to buy back, you know, based
on the conditionality that Sergio described,
 
that is correct. On the US wealth side, I think
 
it's just important to
point out that it's not a shift in strategy. What we said was we're looking to rebalance more into the high
 
net
worth and affluent client segments. And the reality there is that
 
one where we're quite overweight in ultra,
which is, of course, you know, our strength.
27
But it's also important to point out that the return
 
on assets in that segment versus as you move
 
down client
segments is, of course, lower, and so the profitability as you move down segments
 
is higher. And so what
we're trying to do is rebalance so to stay obviously very, to stay very penetrated in ultra, but to increase our
penetration in high net worth and affluent sort of
 
to create a better balance in line, more in line with the
market, a bit more in line, although of course, we want
 
to stay more overweight at the top end because as
 
I
said, that's our strength and our what we bring to – the
 
strength that we bring to the table.
But it is really important to emphasize that, yes,
 
that versus the market, you could see that
 
as we have on slide
26, that, you know, we're looking just to shift and rebalance, you know, more into high net worth and affluent
where the profitability is improved. And yeah, the point is that...
Stefan Stalmann, Autonomous Research
Thank you
Todd
 
Tuckner
...it's a – It's a rebalancing as opposed to a strategy change.
Stefan Stalmann, Autonomous Research
Okay. Yeah.
 
Just to quickly follow up on the first part
 
of the question. Is the 1 billion share buyback plan
 
also
not deducted from CET1 capital or is it?
Todd
 
Tuckner
That's in
[Edit: the CET1 capital i.e. not deducted]
.
Stefan Stalmann, Autonomous Research
It’s in. Okay. Thank you very much.
Andrew Coombs, Citi
Good morning. One follow-up on GWM
 
Americas and then perhaps I can touch
 
on P&C, NII. On the GWM
Americas, you highlighted a couple of times
 
how you are adjusting the FA incentives to align them better with
your strategic goals around net new money, sign acquisition and NII growth. I bet if you can just
 
elaborate a bit
more there on exactly what changes you are making, how you think
 
those changes compare to your US peer
group, especially given your comment in the near term
 
it might lead some FA attrition and lower net new
money? That's the first question.
Second question on the P&C NII, it obviously has
 
been of your biggest headwinds. You're guiding to, I think
that was, well a much more pronounced drop this year than last
 
year. But you're still expecting it to plateau
after the second quarter. So if I just ask, what are your rate assumptions? Take the SNB rate. And I think you
made a comment that it should plateau regardless of
 
where the rate trajectory is thereafter. So perhaps if you
could elaborate on that. And then also what
 
your loan assumptions, given that your loan
 
balances shrunk by
another couple of billion this quarter. Thank you.
Todd
 
Tuckner
So first,
 
on your first question in respect to the FA comp changes, you know, I think the changes that
 
I
highlighted that aligned better with our strategy
 
also are more aligned to what we believe or observe are the
comp models at our competitors as well.
 
We had certain features we think that were perhaps off market and
we are looking more to align with what our peers do.
28
But I think the more important point though is that,
 
you know, in discussing this with, you know, many
financial and getting their take on these changes,
 
it's clear that those who are very aligned with our
 
strategy of
bringing value to their clients and growing their books
 
of business and, you know, as I said, bringing more
solutions to their clients from essentially across what we
 
can offer,
 
those FAs will benefit in this model, and
they'll get paid more. And I think that's the key point.
My comment about FA attrition is just that those who may have benefited
 
from features that we have
eliminated may decide that it – that they
 
would be better off trading away and we have to cater
 
for that
prospect in our in our modeling and so that's why
 
I mentioned that. But, you know, it's important to keep in
mind that the changes we're making are really not intended to reduce compensation,
 
but to increase it as long
as it's being done in ways that are very aligned with our
 
strategy. And I think that's the most important point.
On P&C, net interest income, you had several questions.
 
I mean, in terms of rate assumptions, well, first
 
of all,
you know, the current rates are at 50 basis points, having come down 125 basis
 
points over the last three
quarters of 2024. There's an expectation, if you look at
 
implied forwards, that the rate curve will approach
near-zero. So there is really a lack of deposit margin room for maneuver as we look out, which
 
is why, you
know, we think that the full year 2025 NII, especially if rates move
 
down further, will be even more
pronounced than the Q1 guidance.
I talked about plateauing, you know, once we inflect because if you
 
look at the yield curve, it's actually quite
flat if not even inverted, but it's certainly flat.
 
And as such, you know, we don't see movements in it. So
therefore, you know, if it's effectively hitting a trough, I see it plateauing. And then I commented
 
that, which
was your other question, you know, if rates move, obviously, if they move up, it gives us a bit more deposit
margin room for maneuver. If they move down into negative territory, that is also helpful because we can
typically charge certain clients and also
 
drive greater lending NIM as well.
As far as the expectation around loan balances, we
 
have a stable outlook for lending in P&C
 
and also a stable
outlook for deposits in P&C. So we're quite focused
 
continuing to do balance optimization, ensure that the
pricing reflects the appropriate cost of risk and capital.
 
And on the deposit side, we've been very thoughtful
 
in
how we have moved pricing down in relation to
 
the central bank dropping rates in order to retain deposits
where possible.
Stefan Stalmann, Autonomous Research
Very helpful. Thank you very much.
Amit Goel, Mediobanca
Hi. Thank you and thank you for the clarifications
 
on the capital. I've got just a couple of questions
 
again on
the US business. And so I guess, one, I was
 
just wanted to understand a bit better, you know, as you get to the
15% PBT margin in 2027, you know, what is the kind of plan or
 
thought process in terms of getting to kind
 
of
peer levels or 25%, 30% operating margin in the
 
future or do you, I don't know if you think peers are
overearning? But what the step is there? And if, you
 
know, building out the more comprehensive banking
offering and delivery model is part of that, but
 
what cost is involved in that?
And then secondly, also just curious, in terms of the PBT margin that you're targeting to
 
sustain in 2027, I think
previously you were talking about mid-teens in 2026. So
 
just to check, is that slightly later or is
 
it the same
basic expectation? Thank you.
29
Todd
 
Tuckner
Yeah. So in terms of the expectations, we haven't really articulated that other than
 
I've said in the past that
expected mid-teens in the midterm. We talked about
 
the business and Sergio and I've been doing
 
this. So I
don't think it's inconsistent. But where we're talking over
 
the next couple of years to continue to build and
 
we
think by 2027, we'll be at that at the
 
mid-teens level.
I mean, as far as comparing to peers and we
 
don't – this isn't a comparison to peers
 
for us or sorry, narrowing.
It's not about effectively catching peers, but it's
 
more about narrowing the gap. That's what we've said
consistently, in order to, you know, to improve the overall cost-to-income ratio for the business overall. And in
the US, to put us in a position where we're contributing
 
significantly more to the overall profitability of Global
Wealth Management.
In terms of the banking capabilities and the
 
other capabilities I talked about, those
 
investments are catered for
in my comments. I did say that we're making incremental
 
technology investments and also investments
 
in our
capabilities and in the collective, you know, that's also being priced
 
into our 2025 pre-tax margin expectation.
But also as we, you know, as we guided looking out to 2027 as well.
Amit Goel, Mediobanca
Thank you. Can I just follow up just in terms of
 
that investment and in terms of points
 
of operating margin,
would that be kind of 2, 3 or 5 percentage points of
 
operating margin that you're investing in those years
 
or
just to think about thereafter, how much could potentially drop out or how much is just ongoing
 
investment?
Todd
 
Tuckner
I'd just say the investments that we're making, we already – we've
 
been investing in the business. So it's
important to keep that in mind. But we are making,
 
now we're ensuring that the investments that we
 
make in
technology are done in a way where the payback is improved, as
 
I mentioned, improved ROI. We’re also
funding incremental investments, as I say, and that is captured in the pre-tax margin expectation for 2025
 
and
as we grow it. So, you know, I wouldn't model it falling out. I mean, this
 
will be technology investments we're
going to continue to make for the business
 
to help it grow.
Amit Goel, Mediobanca
Thank you.
Antonio Reale, Bank of America
Good morning. It's Antonio from Bank of
 
America. Two questions for me, please. Actually, it's two follow-ups,
really. One
 
on capital and one on the P&C. So
 
you've repatriated the 13 billion capital at the parent company
this quarter. And despite that, your CET1 ratio at the AG level was only up 20
 
bps or so Q-on-Q to 13.5% now.
Could you please explain why that was
 
the case and maybe talk us through the moving
 
parts? I'm sorry if it's a
repetition, but I think it's important.
And the second question is, again, a follow-up
 
on your Swiss business. You've talked about your NII guidance.
Can you just remind us your sensitivity to rates
 
and hedging structure in Switzerland? And more in general,
what flexibility would you have to mitigate some
 
of this trend on NII with the rest for the P&L? You've alluded
to more cost synergies. So if you can share a little bit
 
more about the moving parts of the P&L, that would
 
be
that would be super helpful. Thank you.
30
Todd
 
Tuckner
So in terms of the mitigants a bit to the headwinds,
 
you know, we're definitely focusing on driving as you saw
in 4Q continuing to drive where possible, non-NII revenue
 
growth improve on recurring revenue and P&C and
also on transaction revenues. That will be a focus
 
to partially offset the headwinds that we
 
see in P&C.
I mean as far as abilities to effectively hedge or extend
 
duration, I mean that's just not when the rates
 
are this
low and with the flat yield curve, you know, extending duration, for
 
example, on non-maturing deposits
doesn't offer much of an advantage at all. In fact, it
 
could lock in funding costs and rather than
 
allow us to
benefit from future rate cuts, including if they go below
 
zero and also creates some mismatched risk, mismatch
risk as well. So, you know, if the rates are going to near zero, as I said, we have very
 
limited room for
maneuverability, and we just have to wait until we see some daylight in terms
 
of changes in that yield curve.
On the capital question you had in terms
 
of what you're missing, I think in terms of
 
the CET1 capital ratio at
UBS AG after it received the capital from the subsidiaries,
 
you know, we are accruing a dividend to the parent
to address the point that I made before in response to Kian's question.
 
So it's a dividend accrual that will serve
as an offset to the – sorry, dividend accrual to group. To
 
be clear, to offset the capital repatriated to AG, its first
tier subsidiary.
Antonio Reale, Bank of America
Thank you very much.
Piers Brown, HSBC
Yes, good morning, everybody.
 
I just got two follow-ups. One, I just wanted
 
to make sure on if I got the
message correct on client risk appetite. I mean, you've
 
talked about the move into sweep accounts
 
and
obviously the fourth quarter NII was much
 
better than we anticipated. But then on
 
the transaction side, you're
little bit below street expectations. When I look at
 
the loan number, that's still declining. So just appetite for re-
leveraging and sort of look forward on the client activity
 
into the first quarter. Can you comment that, please?
And then just a technical question maybe on
 
the Basel III final outcome. I mean, I said
 
it's basically no change
to CET1. I think you had guided to a 30 basis
 
points impact originally. So what's moved in your favor on
implementation of Basel III final that's caused
 
a delta? Thanks.
Todd
 
Tuckner
Hi Piers, so on – I'll just take your second question
 
first. So in terms of the Basel III, look, I guided
 
down last
quarter to a lower level than I had been guiding.
 
You know,
 
as we started to get more visibility and make
progress, the team has done an excellent job at ensuring that
 
we were able to mitigate where we can in some
of the aspects that were at work or infrastructure improvements,
 
model alignments, also exiting positions and
running down risks. So all of those things
 
contributed to our ability to be able to,
 
you know, ultimately print
the day-one level that's far inside where we had guided.
In terms of re-leveraging opportunities, you know, for sure in Global Wealth Management
 
with rates, you
know, potentially higher,
 
you know, we're not or not going, coming down as quickly as perhaps
 
we
anticipated a quarter ago or certainly two
 
quarters ago. You know,
 
that's going to be helpful. That's going
 
to
be helpful for deposit margins as I mentioned,
 
but probably, we'll have a little bit of a chilling effect on re-
leveraging, which is something that with rates
 
coming down, we expect to see both in,
 
you know, in all parts
of the of the wealth business, which involves
 
really where we have US dollar exposure in the US business
naturally, but also in our APAC part of the business.
31
And so we, you know, if rates sort of back up, then we'll have positive effects on
 
deposit margins, but the
extent of re-leveraging that we're pricing into the outlook,
 
you know, we may see that come in less
aggressively.
Piers Brown, HSBC
That's perfect. Thanks. Just on global banking,
 
you mentioned a 20% change in pipeline,
 
was it up or down? I
didn't catch that.
Sergio P.
 
Ermotti
What we mentioned, it's not our pipeline. What
 
we said is that according to market data. So the industry
 
is
down 26% year-to-date [
Edit: 21%
], so for the first month. So our pipeline is
 
building up. We are very
confident about the ability to generate new
 
business and build up our market share.
 
But you know, if you look
at according to market data, January, on January,
 
you know, the amount of fees and activity is down 26%
[
Edit: 21%
] if I remember correctly.
Todd
 
Tuckner
 
So yeah, it came in – the final number came
 
in, yes, sorry, Piers, I got your question. The fee pool is down
around 21 percentage for January.
Piers Brown, HSBC
21, okay. So in any case, to handle in front so...
Todd
 
Tuckner
Exactly.
Sergio P.
 
Ermotti
So that's industry and not UBS. Just to be
 
clear.
Piers Brown, HSBC
Ok, Thanks very much
Sergio P.
 
Ermotti
Okay. So there are no more questions. There are no more questions. So thank you for calling in and for your
questions. So I'll touch base next quarter. Thank you.
 
32
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plans, including its
 
cost reduction and efficiency
 
initiatives and its ability
 
to manage its levels
 
of risk-weighted assets
 
(RWA) and leverage
ratio denominator (LRD),
 
liquidity coverage ratio
 
and other financial
 
resources, including changes
 
in RWA assets and
 
liabilities arising from
 
higher market volatility
and the size of the combined Group; (ii) the degree to which UBS
 
is successful in implementing changes to its businesses to meet changing market, regulatory
and other conditions; (iii) inflation
 
and interest rate volatility in major
 
markets; (iv) developments in the
 
macroeconomic climate and in the markets
 
in which UBS
operates or to which it is exposed, including movements in securities prices or liquidity, credit spreads, currency exchange rates, residential and commercial real
estate
 
markets,
 
general
 
economic
 
conditions,
 
and
 
changes
 
to
 
national
 
trade
 
policies
 
on
 
the
 
financial
 
position
 
or
 
creditworthiness
 
of
 
UBS’s
 
clients
 
and
counterparties, as well as on client sentiment and levels of activity; (v) changes in the availability of capital and funding, including
 
any adverse changes in UBS’s
credit spreads and credit ratings of
 
UBS, as well as availability
 
and cost of funding to
 
meet requirements for debt eligible
 
for total loss-absorbing
 
capacity (TLAC);
(vi) changes in
 
central bank policies
 
or the implementation
 
of financial legislation
 
and regulation in
 
Switzerland, the
 
US, the UK,
 
the EU and
 
other financial centers
that have imposed, or resulted
 
in, or may do so
 
in the future, more stringent
 
or entity-specific capital,
 
TLAC, leverage ratio, net
 
stable funding ratio, liquidity
 
and
funding
 
requirements,
 
heightened
 
operational
 
resilience
 
requirements,
 
incremental
 
tax
 
requirements,
 
additional
 
levies,
 
limitations
 
on
 
permitted
 
activities,
constraints on remuneration, constraints
 
on transfers of capital
 
and liquidity and sharing of
 
operational costs across the
 
Group or other measures, and the
 
effect
these will
 
or would have
 
on UBS’s
 
business activities;
 
(vii) UBS’s
 
ability to
 
successfully implement
 
resolvability and
 
related regulatory requirements
 
and the
 
potential
need to make further changes to the
 
legal structure or booking model of
 
UBS in response to legal and regulatory requirements
 
and any additional requirements
due to its acquisition of the Credit Suisse Group, or other developments; (viii) UBS’s ability to maintain and improve its systems and controls for complying with
sanctions in a timely
 
manner
 
and for the detection
 
and prevention of money
 
laundering to meet evolving
 
regulatory requirements and expectations,
 
in particular
in current geopolitical turmoil;
 
(ix) the uncertainty arising
 
from domestic stresses in certain
 
major economies; (x) changes in
 
UBS’s competitive position, including
whether differences in regulatory capital and other requirements among the major financial centers adversely affect UBS’s ability to
 
compete in certain lines of
business; (xi) changes in the standards of
 
conduct applicable to its businesses that may result from
 
new regulations or new enforcement of existing standards,
including measures to impose new and enhanced duties when interacting with customers and in the execution and handling of customer transactions; (xii) the
liability to which UBS may be exposed, or possible
 
constraints or sanctions that regulatory authorities
 
might impose on UBS, due to litigation, contractual
 
claims
and regulatory
 
investigations, including the
 
potential for
 
disqualification from
 
certain businesses, potentially
 
large fines
 
or monetary
 
penalties, or
 
the loss
 
of
licenses or privileges as
 
a result of
 
regulatory or other governmental sanctions, as
 
well as the effect
 
that litigation, regulatory and similar
 
matters have on the
operational risk
 
component of its
 
RWA; (xiii)
 
UBS’s ability to
 
retain and
 
attract the
 
employees necessary to
 
generate revenues and
 
to manage, support
 
and
control its businesses,
 
which may be
 
affected by competitive
 
factors; (xiv)
 
changes in
 
accounting or
 
tax standards or
 
policies, and determinations
 
or interpretations
affecting the recognition of gain or loss, the valuation of
 
goodwill, the recognition of deferred tax assets
 
and other matters; (xv) UBS’s ability to implement
 
new
technologies and business methods,
 
including digital services, artificial
 
intelligence and other technologies,
 
and ability to successfully compete
 
with both existing
and new financial service providers,
 
some of which may not be regulated
 
to the same extent; (xvi) limitations
 
on the effectiveness of UBS’s internal
 
processes for
risk
 
management, risk
 
control, measurement
 
and modeling,
 
and
 
of
 
financial models
 
generally; (xvii)
 
the occurrence
 
of
 
operational failures,
 
such
 
as
 
fraud,
misconduct, unauthorized trading, financial crime, cyberattacks, data leakage and systems
 
failures, the risk of which is increased with persistently high levels of
cyberattack threats; (xvii) restrictions on
 
the ability of UBS Group AG UBS
 
AG and regulated subsidiaries of
 
UBS AG to make payments or
 
distributions, including
due to restrictions on the ability of its subsidiaries to make loans or distributions, directly or indirectly, or,
 
in the case of financial difficulties, due to the exercise
by FINMA or the
 
regulators of UBS’s
 
operations in other
 
countries of their
 
broad statutory powers
 
in relation to
 
protective measures, restructuring
 
and liquidation
proceedings; (xix) the degree to which changes
 
in regulation, capital or legal structure, financial results
 
or other factors may affect UBS’s ability
 
to maintain its
stated capital return objective; (xx)
 
uncertainty over the scope of
 
actions that may be required by UBS, governments
 
and others for UBS to achieve goals
 
relating
to climate, environmental and social matters, as well as the evolving
 
nature of underlying science and industry and the possibility of conflict
 
between different
governmental standards and regulatory regimes; (xxi) the ability of UBS to access capital markets; (xxii) the ability of UBS to successfully recover from
 
a disaster
or other business continuity problem
 
due to a
 
hurricane, flood, earthquake, terrorist attack, war,
 
conflict, pandemic, security breach, cyberattack, power
 
loss,
telecommunications failure or
 
other natural or
 
man-made event;; and
 
(xxiii) the effect that
 
these or other
 
factors or unanticipated
 
events, including media
 
reports
and speculations, may have on its reputation and the additional consequences that this may have on its business and performance. The sequence in which the
factors above are
 
presented is not
 
indicative of their
 
likelihood of occurrence
 
or the potential
 
magnitude of their
 
consequences. UBS’s business and
 
financial
performance could be affected
 
by other factors identified
 
in its past
 
and future filings
 
and reports, including
 
those filed with
 
the US Securities
 
and Exchange
Commission (the SEC).
 
More detailed information
 
about those factors
 
is set forth
 
in documents furnished
 
by UBS and
 
filings made by
 
UBS with the
 
SEC, including
the UBS Group AG and
 
UBS AG Annual Reports
 
on Form 20-F for the
 
year ended 31 December
 
2023. UBS is not
 
under any obligation to
 
(and expressly disclaims
any obligation to) update or alter its forward-looking
 
statements, whether as a result of new information,
 
future events, or otherwise.
© UBS 2025. The key symbol and UBS are among
 
the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS. All rights
 
reserved
 
 
 
 
SIGNATURES
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrants
 
have duly
caused this report to be signed on their behalf by the undersigned, thereunto
 
duly authorized.
UBS Group AG
By:
 
/s/ David Kelly
 
_
Name:
 
David Kelly
Title:
 
Managing Director
 
By:
 
/s/ Ella Copetti-Campi
 
_
Name:
 
Ella Copetti-Campi
Title:
 
Executive Director
UBS AG
By:
 
/s/ David Kelly
 
_
Name:
 
David Kelly
Title:
 
Managing Director
 
By:
 
/s/ Ella Copetti-Campi
 
_
Name:
 
Ella Copetti-Campi
Title:
 
Executive Director
Date:
 
February 5, 2025

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